"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, July 11, 2014

Horse Latitudes, Doldrums, or The Dog Days?

"Oh Thank Heaven for 7/11"  - On this day last year (Cape Canaveral on 528 Cswy) 

TODAY: The looming dry-slot to the East of Florida advertised a few days ago and has been a thorn in some NWS forecasters sides per forecast discussions to affect the weather over Central Florida on Saturday (perhaps?) is working its way into South Florida as we type or read.

Lower PWAT air (Precipitable Water) is shown as of 5AM.
It is only working very slowly westward  and will fill to some degree with time

For the most looks much like yesterday at first glance other than the dry slot which will primarily be affecting the weather over Southeast Coastal Florida during daylight hours. What remains of it could enter East Central during the overnight , but be out of the area by noon on Saturday (which is a change in the thinking from the last time this was referred to in a blog post).

See  See the Difference between the Horse Latitudes and The Doldrums here

TODAY: The big question for today for one area of interest is mainly East Central Florida prior to 3pm time frame. The NAM model (which is seldom trusted lately) but also the GFS indicate a chance of showers from mid-morning into the afternoon from near Cape Canaveral and north. Despite that the low level ridge axis lifts north of the area, the upper level winds are more southerly yet extremely light. This could in effect result in reformation of showers closer to the coast as a result of outflow from activity just to the west of the coast, but not so sure model guidance has the local weather so pegged to that degree. Otherwise, the more favorable areas for typically more 'predictable' thunder activity appears to be along the west coast later in the day.

Today might be a day of  'curious anomalies' thus the zone in question. Latest forecast RAP model soundings shows conditions favorable again for waterspouts (one was spotted off South Cocoa Beach during the early evening hours from a line of towering culumus showers right near sunset regardless of strong onshore sea breeze winds on the beaches).  Winds aloft are forecast so light in the RAP (not so much the GLobal Forecast System - GFS) , that at 2PM today one is hard pressed to find winds stronger than 5 kts clear up to 20,000 ft . With ample moisture to be near a PWAT (Precipitable Water) of 2.00" north and west of the dry slot and such light winds and assuming the high clouds currently seen streaming in from the NE into parts of this area might dissipate, almost anything could (or could not) happen. The forecast is for those winds to change direction and therefore put an end to the high clouds.

SATURDAY: Again, guidance has shifted gears and is no longer calling for a flat out 'free day' from the rains in many areas. Steering could be more SW (but again extremely light) over mainly North Central  which would allow some storms to generate close to the east coast through mid afternoon at least. This is July for you though.  The best bet at this conjuncture is perhaps showers along the Intracoastal prior to 1pm and working inland with the incoming strengthening east coast sea breeze, though if yesterday was any indicator, it might not fully manifest until very late in the afternoon which changes many things for those of interest at the beaches and for boating activities primarily.

View from a Previously Severe Warned Storm as it Approached
Canaveral Hospital (lower left) on Wednesday

FOREGOING SUNDAY for now as Saturday might be a good pre-curse-ing indicator of what will occur Sunday.

See Some Various Notions on Why the Dog Days?

MONDAY-THURSDAY: A fairly unusual 'cool bout' to impact much of the nation as the next lobe of energy rounds the 'Infamous Polar Vortex' region deepening the upper level trough over the eastern 1/3 of the country, and thus propelling  a cold front southward across much of the country and well into the Deep South with low mornings temperatures in many areas in the 50Fs range or even some upper 40Fs.

 Florida will avoid the cold temperatures, but the net effect noted previously will be to put the state in SW flow aloft which will favor the interior and east side for afternoon thunderstorms under the pretense that dry air will not be entrained into this flow. Earlier indications were that a few of these days could be 'early onset' days for rains, but it's too early in this stage to make that call with much certainty.

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