TODAY: Will leave today's post brief as radar is matching fairly well with model guidance. Mid level energy sockets to move from west to east and east-south east today across the state independent of the usual "heating-lifting-sea breeze convergence " diurnal atmospheric life cycle for the most part outside of parts of South Florida.
Image above shows general;y the west to east progression of most of the rains, though showers could pop up even earlier than the linear progression above depicts in some areas. Rains could linger for a while after passage of the leading edge and some random activity might re-develop late in the day toward the west coast (mainly) Best chance of thunder would be along the leading edge of the activity but so far severe storms are not expected for the most part but not 100 percent exclusively, just very unlikely.
TUESDAY-WEEKEND Colder air aloft would or could result in stronger storms, but on the other hand it might mean earlier initiation. Will see what happens on Tuesday in how it plays out as earlier initiation would not allow for sea breeze convergences to work their magic as well, and thus lack of stronger storms.
It's a bit of a guessing game through Thursday perhaps as the ridge axis way south lifts north to Central Florida and then eventually north of Central by the weekend if not by Friday leaving the east coast high and dry for the Fourth of July outside of showers that might move on shore. Overall, storm coverage is not being shown to be very high as atmospheric moisture levels might not be quite as high as could be otherwise and/or not at the right levels. Will have to wait that one out as well..precluding the chance of antecedent cloud cover on any given day which would be a debilitating factor for better storm growth.