|Severe Storm over West Central Texas|
TODAY: After several 'severe reports' yesterday from hail size 1" or greater and 'damaging' wind gusts, today could be another day of active weather but for different reasons as an upper level trough and associated low circulation deepens a bit over the U.S. Deep South. Jet stream winds today will be stronger aloft as cold temperatures there prevail, but surface based instability will be a bit limited due to the antecedent cloud cover now in place.
Regardless, sufficient lapse rates, some upper level energy (vorticity) , cold air and local circulations could get the show rolling. The location of strongest storms will likely be just away from the coast toward the interior but exactly where is difficult to pinpoint as cloud cover tends to offset the sea breeze collision effect either in regard to timing, strength, location or all of those combined. Today's activity will be abetted by jet stream winds, cold air aloft, and the disturbances aloft over the usual generic sea breeze collisions alone (which is the typical summer regime). If cloud cover gets to dense and sea breezes remain weak stronger storms might be hard to come by, but beneficial rainfall toward the east coast would be helpful regardless of storm intensities.
BEYOND: Better chances of storms tomorrow appears to be over Southern Portions of Florida as jet stream winds will be strongest there. Other areas for storms will be contingent on the amount of antecedant cloud cover once again. Guidance differs in this regard, but over all there should be decreasing rain chances for afternoon activity toward the east side of the state until around Sunday after a disturbance in whatever form it takes lifts out of the western Caribbean and well out and away from Florida.
There are hints some drier air might begin to pass over the state as well in coming days or high clouds could also be an issue. Will play it day by day .