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Otherwise, some new 'driving factors' are at play in the wind fields. Though moisture is bit tad sparser over Central the ribbon of it remains nearly the same running about 30 miles either side of a line running from Tampa to Port St. John on the east coast. It appeared even before Sunrise that there was a boundary there and it shows up even better now at sunrise. Steering today could become more NW if any STRONG / SEVERE STORM latches on to the East Coast Sea breeze particularly from near Ormond Beach south toward Southern Volusia. Thus, one thing that 'might' need to be considered is a 'right mover down the intracoastal later today IF the east coast sea-breeze gains momentum up-coast from a strongly southerly component much like it did yesterday over parts of Eastern Brevard County.
Thus, the risk for strong storms along the east coast south of I-4 is conditional on the east coast sea breeze and any storm forming or even 'rolling' into this area from a northerly direction OR acquiring a propagating principle down stream along the sea breeze front.
Latest Mesoscale Analysis page is hitting on a supercell component or rotating type thunderstorm parameter being present along a line from near Titusville to North Tampa Bay and north...however, with the additional sea breeze front which appears could form but stay perhaps east of I-95 today per KSC Sounding from this morning...could translate that 'supercell' principle further south into where moisture still resides to perhaps near South Melbourne Beach along the east coast if not Sebastian Inlet.
There is a BIG IF though. The forecast for this particular parameter is for it to diminish going into the afternoon, which would leave the chance of nothing more that a rouge thunderstorm in the equation along the Florida east Coast south of Ormond Beach.
BEYOND: Will watch for a chance of stronger storms again perhaps Saturday and/or Sunday but moisture availability and the level of the atmosphere where any will be useful is becoming sketchy.
So far, the better chance of showers/thunder is being shown by the GFS to be along the east coast and Central Peninsula though we might start to see considerable overnight to early A.M activity along the Nature Coast (Big Bend area) by tomorrow or Sunday morning in association with an approaching frontal boundary.
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