"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Rain Chances Into Early Sunday - "Breezy Cool" Monday

Wednesday Morning Rain Showers Off Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Saga of muggy and above average temperature days continues as a well defined 'air mass change' has reached the far western Panhandle. 

Well defined 'air mass change' is delineated by a frontal boundary over the Western Panhandle. Although this front will reach Central Florida by early Friday it will be greatly modified with the deeper drying and coolest air never making much head way south of (in general) the "I-4" if even that.

Little overall change in thinking from previous 'blog post guesses' .

Chance of showers and some thunder possible especially after 2pm through 7pm (Central and parts of South Florida mainly later today). Heavy showers and some thunder is already being observed over parts of North Florida even at 6AM.  Chance that some of the afternoon to early evening activity could be accompanied by periodic bursts of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will watch for the degree of heating potential especially south of I-4 by early afternoon as some storms north of a Vero Beach to Sarasota line could verge on the 'stronger side'.

FRIDAY: Front will stretch out across the Lake Okeechobee region with easterly flow returning. Deepest moisture initially will be over the southern 3rd of the state but this still appears to be rather short lived. Even a small rain chance could remain for a part of Brevard near the East coast but it currently appears the better rain chances will be further south as noted in the previous post. Not much change in temperatures from those of recent days - but at least it will be less breezy at the immediate east coast (e.g. - wind gusts this Thursday morning at Patrick AFB - Cocoa Beach - are higher then 25mph while some inland locations are observing 'calm' winds).

SATURDAY: Model guidance differs on what happens going into early Saturday. The latest NAM s similar to the old GFS run at the time   the previous blog post was made  - implying the front lifting back north and some southerly flow returning. The GFS now though merely leaves a light easterly flow- but either way..deeper moisture works back north. If the NAM is correct would need to re-introduce thunder chances from I-4 and south on Saturday which will guess would be the better of two 'bets'.

SUNDAY: Due to model guidance differences - the degree of rainfall coverage is also highly varied; however, for now would say rain chances remain on Sunday for Central (south of I-4) into only early  morning with partial clearing by later morning if not a bit sooner. Wind from the NNW-N and beginning to get breezy though the  more windy conditions await for overnight Sunday Night - Monday - Tuesday.

Wednesday Morning early on - Breezy Morning with temperature in mid 70Fs

MONDAY; Very Breezy and quite cool by this season's standards! Highs might only reach the mid-upper 60Fs with winds in the 20 mph gusting toward 30 mph (especially along the east coast)- with lower-mid 70Fs restricted to South Florida. 

Will have to wait for a few more model runs to see if that temperature profile will remain - but the GFS has been holding steadfast on a very cool and breezy day but worth noting:

"The Warmest Spot in the Entire Country Monday morning it appears will be along the Florida East Coast from the Cape South toward far South Florida" ....

....... with even Ft Myers areas (for example) being colder than locations right at the beaches from Canaveral and South (which is normal for the late fall and winter season and has be reiterated several times in blog posts (last year and the years before).

BEYOND - THANKSGIVING: Air mass modification ensues full swing by Wednesday morning with easterly flow returning and and less 'windy'. Chance of cloud cover and possibly even some rain showers - however - for now will leave it at mainly cloudy cover from off the ocean until there is more model consistency. Yet another front will be on the approach a few days out.

WILL IT GET COLD THIS MONTH?!: GFS has been implying a taste of 'winter' for several runs in the November 30th - December 3rd time frame - but as usual- this is too far out in time for accuracy - but even the implication of it and seeing those colder temperatures in the 40Fs and even some upper 30Fs working into Central Florida has one reaching for the stocked up soup supply - might consider sdusitng off the cold weather gear  sometime soon.

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