"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Marginally Strong - Near Severe Storms Thursday - Saturday / More Rain Chances through Tuesday (at least)

Tranquil Morning - Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Only slight change from yesterday's sensible weather. Still very cool inland early this morning but mild along the immediate east coast . 

Warmest pre-sunrise temperatures are running along the Key West line of US 1 northward to near the Cape  -  though further north toward St Lucie County they follow the line of A1A and eastward - temperatures in the mid-upper 60Fs to near 71F in the warmer areas but 50Fs and even some 40Fs prevail elsewhere.  

Regardless, with onshore flow working inland interior and western parts of the state will realize upper 70Fs today while east coast locations will be limited mainly to mid 70Fs with some increased patches of mainly stratocumulus clouds. 

Changes are coming after midnight from South to North though and will remain in place well through the up-coming Easter Weekend.

THURSDAY: Deeper southerly flow should usher increased atmospheric moisture from The South northward toward the Dead Central Line by late in the day coupled with increased instability and cold upper level temperatures. Oft fresh surges of moisture accompanied by instability can be harbingers of some rough weather in the spring and early fall seasons so will hold no bars on this post though the chance of strong storms looks rather slim (at time)...won't hold back from these conditions this time of year throwing some wild punches. Granted, no true forecast works on hunches

 Thursday's forecast is 'very' touch - n- go, but some guidance has been very consistent with a 'strong to near severe chance'  of activity somewhere along the East Central Florida coast now in almost consistent manner for two days sometime mainly between 5pm - 8pm.


GOOD FRIDAY:  Friday looks to be another day with   a better chance of storms, some on the strong side with hail possible mid-late afternoon 


This morning will be completely dependent on whether or not an upper level disturbance is passing from west to east Easter morning for rain chances at Beach Services.  Guidance has bounced around on this for a few days now and point is, it is simply too early at this stage to say if there will be rain on sunrise Easter morning, though so far things look to be  in favor of beach-side participants, at least along the East Coast up through 9AM.

BEYOND: As noted from the captioned image above, any frontal boundary that works into Central Florida early on should lift right back north and dissolve, thus we will be in the waiting game for the next front which would be around late Monday. 

Some guidance implies that front too will never quite make it down the state which puts Florida (at least south of I-10) in the position of awaiting yet another front which might not be but well out of forecast range. 

In the more extended after Sunday or Monday it would appear (IF that is the case) that most activities would be limited toward the interior counties. 

There is a chance as times come closer that there will be some mesoscale systems that will form in the northern-eastern or eastern gulf on 'any day' after Saturday as a result of an upper level disturbances which would throw a wrench in the 'mainly afternoon and early evening' proverbial cliche for best rain chances in regard to timing (given that it is the time of year when disturbances associated with the Northern upper level trough systems can still affect Florida).

Either way, some much needed rainfall this time of year appears to be in the cards ranging from 1- 4" between Late Thursday through Monday (especially if we go into even mid week). 

That has been indicated by earlier GFS runs, even 3 days ago. Upcoming days might not all be a walk in the park either to forecast or for outside activities; but at least it will be warm with temperatures at time above seasonal norms with no cold air foreseen whatsoever. 

Even out to April Fool's Day the forecast at times has called for 'severe' mainly across parts of North Florida but again that is not so much a forecast as much as projection of potentialities.

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