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| Lightning Offshore the Cape Early This Morning |
TODAY: As usual, forecasts are changing while in 'recovery mode' from yesterday's 'weather' operation across the state. Not sure even the 8AM Guidance will really tell the story for what is to come today but will give it a shot. The KSC Sounding came in 'surprisingly cooler than models implied would be the case though suspect it might warm aloft from what came about earlier today as the lowest heights at the 500MB level are likely lifting out and colder air with it.
Earlier there was a rather amazing lightning show which ensued very early this morning offshore the Cape area with near continuous in-cloud lightning.
The difference today, unless things change, is that the Convective Temperature at both The Space Center and down in MIA (Miami) was around 85F (as opposed to about 92F the other day), which means some good clouds leading to shower activity (especially across SE interior Florida) could get going a bit sooner in the day as opposed to the 3pm hours. More like noon time? The Tampa Sounding came in surprisingly 'dry' relative to surrounding locations and the JAX sounding looked contaminated and will discard.
The latest HRRR and Hi-RES NAM (esp. the HRRR) is now showing greater coverage and sooner onset of activity than it did a few hours ago. What will be is what will be. In the all in all whenever activity does initiate..it will be near to West of I-95 and near to east of I-75 like past days with a few exceptions here and there. Best chance of activity to press off the east coast will be toward Daytona and North..though after dark debris rains , like last evening, could drift to the beach areas mainly from Brevard and north.
FRIDAY: Again, similar pattern with a big caveat . The NAM shows it to be 'quite active' with much coverage of showers/storms in toe. Rather skeptical of said 'coverage' or at least the intensity of it being implied. The GFS does impress upon showers across the state even early on, but instability is lacking as it will be most all of the upcoming weekend. Local Forecast Offices (up to this time) are still forecasting 'good' rain chances with thunder as the models continue to advertise a rather stable and cloudy day with showers possible instead. So will be interesting to see what comes out of it all. Either way..
WEEKEND: Saturday is not looking much like a stellar 'beach day'; there might be some improvements on Sunday...noting that the better chances of having good sun out early on equates to the better chance of thunderstorms and rain-showers later. So one can have the cloudiness and less chance of rain, or sunshine with a much better chance of rain. Maybe it will be both cloudy AND a good chance of rain just to make matters worse. Either way, the plus side is : 'It won't be cold !"
BEYOND: The far SW Gulf will be sloshing high PWAT (Precipitable water) this way up to and in excess of 2.00" going into tomorrow through the weekend. The 'offices' are all mentioning that 'heavy rainfalls' need to be watched out for. For now , we'll just have to wait and see, as forecast soundings from what I can tell are advertising near saturation through the column -- non-conducive for large and heavy rainfall totals and coverage; though , high PWAT conditions have been known to drop buckets in a particular location on occasions. So no promises on the weekend just yet other than it could rain almost at any time under those conditions, especially in the later morning to early afternoon. Just have to wait and see. Never hurts to play it safe too in the forecast realm with all that atmospheric moisture sloshing around. My experience says that for 'the most' part such conditions result in mostly cloudy skies with spotty precip.
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