"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, July 28, 2017

Chances of Thunder 'Mainly' Along to South of SR50 Through to the Glades - Hot Inland (!)

Severe Warned Thunderstorm near OIA
Viewed from the Brevard County Line to the East

TODAY: Not much change from yesterday though KSC sounding appears to have come in just a tad cooler aloft. The other change is lack of upper level cirrus clouds that were prevalent yesterday which had streamed across from the NE from storms that were well offshore the coast of North Florida. Net effect will be better surface heating today in the presence of PWAT air in the 1.7 -2.10" range across most of Central/South Florida.  Guidance originally had almost zero chance of rain north of Indian River County but that might have changed from what I'm seeing from morning surface obs and latest HRRR run. With that said, the region that there is most question about in regard to if it will rain (or rather, thunder) other than an isolated shower or two is the area north of far Southern Brevard County. More certain seems to be points south and inland.

Otherwise, again warm with high heat indices. Highs running lower 90Fs near coast and in the 94-96F range inland (maybe even warmer a few places?). Otherwise, it will be similar to yesterday. The lack of early day clouds though will certainly give things a head start in the heating up realm.  Though there could be showers or even a storm near I-10 today I left that out in the graphic below as it looked to be a very 'isolated' situation up that way today.

SATURDAY: Again, a lower end chance of rainfall overall by July standards. Guidance still comes in rather 'dry' but not completely. My guess is that this day will have the least chance of rain of any day to come for quite a while.

SUNDAY-THURSDAY: As mentioned in previous post, a near FLT (Full Latitudinal Trough) up and down the east coast is shaping up and looking more unusual with every passing model run it seems. 

The associated cold front which was being advertised yesterday to make it 'possibly' as far south as I-4 is now being shown per overnight models at least to make it into North Brevard County - possibly somewhere near SR 50 across toward Brooksville on the west coast. At this rate, it might even make it down to Melbourne or so if the trend continues. Either way, that boundary should act as a mechanism for convergence . and anywhere within 30-40 miles either side of it could see a high chance of rain. Wouldn't be surprised if we see or hear 70-80% chance of rain on local net works come Monday night through most of Tuesday and into Wednesday. The days will not be complete wash outs, but likely have sig cloud cover off and on with a quick start to convection and showers after sunrise. Either way, no matter how far south it gets it is expected to take a slow lift back to the north by Wednesday afternoon.

BEYOND: Continued high PWAT air (reading above 2.00" through the duration from late Sunday through Thursday at least. If you can believe it, the last GFS run showed PWATs running at 2.00" plus for Central and South Florida through August 6th or a good 10 days. For comparison, in the winter months our PWATs run around 0.2 - 0.5 "  . Here is a colorized graphical depiction for MONDAY's FORECAST per the GFS of the Precipitable water values being forecast. The white boxes are showing the PWAT being forecast for various areas. The 'blue dashed' line is an estimate of  where the SURFACE FRONT might be located Monday afternoon, which will mostly be but a wind shift line though we can see there is drier air even across Far North Florida behind the front. For the most part, anywhere south of a line from Ormond Beach toward Cedar Key should remain in the realm of rain chances every day from Sunday through next weekend, and with that, not so warm as the past few days and today.

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