"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

New Pattern to Play Out Today - Thursday

Storm Approaching Canaveral Cruise Terminals on Sunday Around Noon-Time
TODAY-THURSDAY: Twist to the rather uneventful pattern of the last two days (Monday/Tuesday). Not that there has not been some showers, and even a 'good rain' the other day down in Okeechobee County, but by-n-large things have been on the 'quiet but hot' side of the July coin.  Looks like it landed on tails the past couple of days but it will all come to a head coming late week on the flip side.

Regardless, minor detail changes at hand but nothing that will go unnoticed for those who get a shot at rain today that haven't even seen a hint of it during the past two days. Will not rehash the warm and hot message that most are already aware of if only to have walked outside after 1PM and away from the sea breeze, as heat indices sore to even above 108F in a few isolated cases, but mostly around the 102-105F region (other than right on the beaches).

Moisture most available across South Florida will advect during the day to near the SR 528 dividing line by later afternoon. Sufficient moisture in place already for some cumulus clouds but nothing more that far north (so far), whereas a few showers have already managed to develop over South Florida.

Though a storm could 'conceivably' become strong, the signals aren't good enough at the moment to make that call, and nothing per guidance implies that would be the case if in fact given the atmospheric conditions it is even possible.

 Most activity will be in the 'shower' category for the most part , apart from boundary collisions near Lake Okeechobee and late day where the 'Hatfields meet the McCoys" (West and East Coast Sea Breeze Collision") where some real 'sparks might fly and shots will be fired'. 

 Best chance of this collision appears now to be in Central Osceola County  then south and west toward the NW-and West side of Lake Okeechobee.   

One model shows some stronger activity closer toward the West coast even well South of Tampa but am hesitant to include, namely because upper level winds at 'storm anvil height' are well  out of the Northeast to ENE and blowing toward the WSW..anvil tops spreading across the western portions of the state if other activity forms more toward the interior might well put the lid on activity further west.

THURSDAY: A similar scenario will take shape, day two of the Pattern with a variation. This day appears to have better coverage and greater storm strength potential. Some activity on this day might be able to work off the east coast from Brevard County and North as SW Flow aloft begins to increase.

As it is now, a voriticity field aloft is resting over Southern Georria toward North Florida. This area appears to be the harpbinger of what is to develop in the coming days as an upper level trough well up by the Great Lakes moves east and begins to synch with the mid-level  'troughiness' over the Deep South just now in progress.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: These two days might be the great 'in-between' days of lower activity again as drier air advects across the state.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: These days, but mostly so on Monday, appear to be the next pattern to emerge   as a near Full Latitudinal Trough (FLT) down the east coast with a mid level Center over the Deep South will increase westerly flow surface and aloft. By Tuesday and/or Wednesday we might not see an east coast sea breeze at all. Despite that there will be increased moisture ample for storms, that which is being most impressed from my readings of the models at this stage is for early morning activity mostly over the Panhandle and along the Gulf Coast...with increased could cover from the west spreading across much of the state. After Monday it might be hard to recover from the previous day's activity, and so it goes on into the following days, each day successively less active than the day before due to cloud cover even though steering would favor storms moving completely off the east coast of the state.  

That is just a first 'best guess' as to what might begin to evolve going into later next week; for now though, perhaps on Sunday we will see stages of the new pattern at play to evolve to Monday and perhaps Tuesday. Long and short of it is that next week might not be the greatest days for going to the beaches other than earlier in the day. Monday appears to be the biggest 'overall  Thunder Day'.


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