"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Chances of Showers/Thunder South of I-4 : Potential 'Active Event' Going into October

Rain Squalls Preparing to Make Landfall Saturday Afternoon - Cape Canaveral, Florida
TODAY: Ample moisture combined with sufficient instability and  stronger jet stream level wind from the SSW-SW well aloft rounding the base of an upper level low just west of the state might combine to result in showers and thunderstorms later today from 'South to "North" as the day progresses. 

Exactly how far "North' they will be able to manifest is in question. The better bet is along a line running from South of Melbourne beach west toward interior West Florida east of Sarasota area and south. There is a random risk storms and/or showers might be able to manifest late toward dark as far north as Titusville and across the Orlando area (however). Areas north of I-4 look to have an even less chance of seeing activity today except perhaps toward southern Lake County.

Weekend and Beyond: In lieu of getting tangled up in the next few days to follow which look rather dry and continued quite warm though there might be a  rain chance toward South Florida, especially over the interior, will bring a mention of greater potential relevance/importance  - which is the time from October 1 (Sunday) - October 14. 

GFS, ECMWF, and in some regard the Canadian model are at time sharing in the development of a particular scenario involving the formation of a surface low  across South Florida (generally) either toward the West or East coast (or somewhere in between). Timing in regard to exactly when all this 'might' transpire is still in question; however, the best bet so far points to overnight Saturday night into early Sunday and all through Sunday day.  GFS and in some regard ECMWF models show   quite gusty surface wind to accompany this low  along it's north side which , and if so, would be  a particular pointing to the immediate east coast from Central Volusia County and southward especially for Brevard and Indian River Counties.

Will say that for now this is but a 'heads up' and nothing is set in regard to if any thing will actually transpire. The GFS model has been attempting to peg something down now for several days but keeps changing its tune, but as of this morning several models have jumped on board with 'some kind of scenario' developing during the time frame from Saturday lasting even potentially through to around October 12th (in various phases) as a broad area of low pressure  develops across the Western Caribbean region accompanying by strong high pressure to it's north extending from the Canadian Border southward toward Southern Georgia. 

The result of these two 'areas' alone would be stronger pressure gradient winds, but those plus a surface low of concentrated energy in the presence of PWAT (precipitable water values) in excess of  2,00" along with continued warm ocean waters could spell.. .  "B-I-G - r-a-i-n-f-a-l-l -t-o-t-a-l-s " over the extended time frame for some areas.  So far this does not look like the 'no name' event of October 7 -9, 2011 by any means when there was cold air aloft. This situation looks a bit more 'tropical in nature' than that event. Either way, bears watching. 

There is a risk that  during the course of the period from Sunday through Thursday (in general as a starting point of reference in this yet to develop scenario) that some areas could see as much as 2-5" of rainfall, and that might be conservative.  The GFS and ECMWF also follow up this event with yet another low forming in the eastern gulf which could add to the rainfall totals in a big way; however, the timing on when each model does so is several days apart from each other. 

On top of the rainfall risk, surface winds, if said low can develop could be gusting in the 35-42 mpn range in heavier activities as it comes in off the Atlantic ocean, and this point that area of interest is Brevard/Indian River Counties in particular . So far the time frame for the wind risk looks to be early Sunday through most of Monday (which could easily change).

Regardless of many uncertainties still at this stage, given the situation being presented, it could be considered warranted to provide at least a 'Heads Up!"   from a blogger perspective) that the First Two Weeks of October could be quite active in a variety of ways. Just exactly in 'what way and where' is TBD.

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