Tornadoes in Oklahoma and Kansas Yesterday Shatter Lives

Radar image shows the barrage of storms after they have passed well east of the Oklahoma City area which was hard hit.

As was well advertised by the folks at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) located in Norman, Oklahoma and the affiliate National Weather Service (NWS) Offices, yesterday was a big tornado day for Oklahoma and Kansas.

The storms moved very fast, were extremely dangerous, and not conducive for a thoroughly rewarding day of storm chasing (for those so inclined), although the lucky few I'm sure will beg to differ. All in all, most chases were fleeting in length. Not sure who was getting chased yesterday...the storms or the enthusiasts.

Unfortunately, 5 lives were lost to the hands of these storms and approximately 58 others were injured. Property damage was extensive across a wide expanse of Oklahoma. The Weather Channel (TWC) was covering the activity nicely for us folks not located in that region. I can't imagine what it would have been like to be watching a local TV station while being impacted by those fast moving storms.

Closer to home - -

Stacked high pressure off the U.S. East Coast continues to be the dominant weather feature for the folks in Florida...and this will continue to be the case until next Tuesday when an upper level trough will dig into the Southeast U.S.

Even then, it currently appears that his trough will have minimal impact on South and Central Florida. Therefore...and with that said:

TODAY-THE WEEKEND: The monotonous pattern continues. If one is so inclined to like days on end with little variability in temperatures and sky conditions, then these days will be well suited for you.

Lows in the low 70s and highs in the low 80s along the coast and a few degrees warmer inland. Somewhat breezy winds generally from the east and gradually shifting to the ESE - SE by the weekend. Partly cloudy to widely scattered clouds and no rain.

Wake me when it's over...zzzzzz

Big Storms in the Plains Today and Tonight!!

All eyes will be on the sky today across the east half of Kansas and Oklahoma into Arkansas and Missouri as we work into the post-sunset hours as a very fast moving and developing storm system impinges into that region during the course of the next 12-24 hours. Directional wind shear/helicity values at the low levels will be off the charts. Any limited instability due to cloud cover in this region will be overcome as we work into the late afternoon/early evening hours.

A dry line will extend from North Central Kansas well into Texas where more isolated storms will be possible. In fact, as we work into late afternoon a variety of upper level winds screaming at 50+ kts will abet the dryline to punch across the OK/KS border which will give rapid rise to supercell thunderstorm structures and the development of long tracked, strong tornadoes if all pans out as currently depicted. Meanwhile, closer to home in East Central Florida:

TODAY: Can't say the same for the weather here. In fact, it will be benign in the most unruly of fashion...we are out of control with pleasant weather for the day. In fact, for the week!

Expect the sky to be clear with a good east breeze of the ocean and very mild but typical temperatures for this time of year in the pre-summer / dry spell environment. Lows in the low 70s and highs in the low 80s along the coast...mid 80s inland.

THROUGH SATURDAY: The only change will be for the wind to become a little more from the ESE-SE by the weekend. One or maybe even two cold fronts will try to penetrate down the state but with no success. It's too late in the year to be getting cold fronts, and mother nature is letting us know that.

VERY EXTENDED: Still no sign of any change in this persistent pattern for the extreme Southeast (namely peninsular Florida) for over 10 days. Fire weather might become an issue as we enter next week...but the wet season will be right around the corner.

Have you noticed how FEW brush fires we've had this year?! I guess we can thank El Nino for that. Might as well inflate the pool float, slap on the sunscreen, focus those sunglasses and enjoy.

Happy Mother's Day

It's a day of rest for all moms and for East Central Florida in the weather department.

THIS WEEK: Good luck to all Storm Chasers on Monday!! Not a hint of weather to speak of back east. Strong high pressure will be the ruling force across the SE as the Great Plains, particularly South Central Kansas and North Central Oklahoma kick into High Gear with long tracking supercells and tornadoes on Monday.

Closer to home in East Central Florida. Breezy on shore flow all week with hardly a change in high (low 80s) and low temperatures (low-mid 70s) all week under clear to widely scattered cloud conditions through Friday and into next weekend. No rain.

Time to think of bigger eggs to fry for blog posting. Perhaps we can shift our focus to the more active weather areas for a change (like the Southern and Central Plains states).

On the other hand, perhaps once this benign pattern breaks we'll be ready to enter our thunderstorm season.

Happy Mother's Day!

"Let me be an instrument of thy Peace..Let me Love Rather than Be Loved"

Warmest Day of the Year for Extreme East Central Florida

Image: Beach Sunrise At Cocoa Beach Pier

Synopsis: A cold frontal boundary will be approaching the state during the day and into the evening. Strong high pressure will build in rapidly behind it from the NW and West on Sunday.

TODAY: In advance of the cold front winds will remain from the west all day today (and we won't get the usual cooling sea breeze in the afternoon). As a result, the temperature for the first time this year will be permitted to sky rocket right along the coast today (for a change). Inland temperatures will remain status quo in the low 90s, but locations like Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach, PAFB, Satellite Beach and Indian Harbor will really feel a big difference today with the high right around 90..and maybe even a little higher. No rain.

TONIGHT: The cold front will pass through during the very early morning hours and will be accompanied only by a few clouds. The wind will quickly swing around from the WSW to NE to ENE by shortly after (if not at..) sunrise.

As a result, we will have an onshore component wind tomorrow...so say good bye to the very warm temperatures we'll have today.

SUNDAY: Much cooler by at least 10 degrees from today (Saturday) with a high right around 77-79 degrees.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Low temperatures will not really be affected much along the immediate coast with a low near 71-73 degrees.

MONDAY: Just like Sunday. High near or just below 80 and mostly clear skies.

REST OF THE WEEK: Gradually moderating temperatures with E-ESE winds. Much cooler right along the coast than it will be inland with clear to widely scattered clouds in the sky conditions category. So what's new! TOTALLY UNEVENTFUL.

Any outside activities planned for the upcoming week should be able to go without a hitch.

Strong Storms Yesterday - More Today

Image: This storm produced wind damage in Port St. John and the Titusville area during the time these photos were taken

More strong to possibly severe storms today for parts of East Central and Southeast Florida!

SYNOPSIS: Remnants of a frontal boundary remain over a broad area of the south half of the state early this morning. A cold front is passing through the Midwest and the Mississippi River Valley region and high pressure exists well out into the Atlantic which extends across S. Florida

TODAY: Another day much like yesterday with some minor differences. Yes, we will have CAPEs around 3000 once again and LIs are forecasted to be in the -8 to -10 range once again with some mid-level drying. Steering flow however, will be a bit stronger out of the WNW-NW which could aid in storms being even MORE organized today.

Light and variable winds at the surface will succumb to the stablilizing sea-breeze along the immediate coast across Central Florida by noon time.

Thus, feel that the strongest of storms won't quite make it to the coast with any significant "punch" , but it will be a different story inland.

The chance of rain will be greatest across South Brevard, Osceola, Indian River, and Okeechobee Counties then south and east to West Palm Beach and toward Miami. The strongest of storms, if the forecast parameters for this afternoon occur where currently expected, will occur over southern Osceola County and Okeechobee counties by mid-late afternoon. Areas around Cocoa, Merritt Island, Cape Canaveral and points south might hear some thunder and get some rain as well...just not with of great/strong intensity once the storms get east of I-95 or perhaps even US-1.

Storms today could be QUITE strong to possibly severe and again produce small hail and damaging wind gusts!

Highs today will peak at noon before sea-breeze onset then cool a few degrees right along the coast. We'll shoot for 86 before things cool off.

All rain to end at if not shortly before sunset.

SATURDAY: One last warm day as the front across the Mississippi River Valley region today moves in to the Deep South. Storms will still be possible from West Palm Beach and points south as well as north of Daytona Beach, leaving the central peninsula high and dry (and very warm). Highs in the mid-upper 80s all regions.

SUNDAY: By sunrise the front will have passed through Central Florida with only some clouds to show for it. High temperatures will lower to the low 80s as onshore flow will be prevalent which will transport cool, oceanic air across the area under a dryer layer of air above that.

MONDAY-BEYOND: No sign of rain or significant temperature changes. High pressure will build south from the mid-Atlantic region behind the front which will provide for light onshore flow and stable air. As mentioned yesterday...we are not quite yet in the 'wet season'. Not for a couple more weeks

"It's Beginning To Look a Lot Like..."...Summer

TThunderstorm gust fronts move in on Cape Canaveral, Florida

Unlike the winter time when we were in a high shear, low CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) environment, we are in more of a low shear, high CAPE one which is typical of summer in Florida. These conditions aren't here to stay just yet...but a sampling of summer, like yesterday, will be with us once again today and tomorrow (more so across South Brevard and points south of there tomorrow). These conditions both days will be especially prevalent east of the I-95 corridor where a sea breeze convergence at the low levels of the atmosphere will occur and CAPE/EHI (Energy Helicity Index) Values, and LIs (Lifted Indices) are maximized.

SYNOPSIS: Strong high pressure to remain well to east of the state over the Atlantic Ocean extends west toward the Florida Straits as the old cold frontal boundary disperses its remnant ashes across the Central Florida Peninsula very VERY early this morning. This boundary (if one can even call it THAT)...will be in place today as it slowly buries itself and digs its own grave through tonight and into tomorrow. After tomorrow it will be non-existent as high pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico and joins forces with the Atlantic high pressure system. The combined forces will assert their strength over the state as we move into the weekend and for most, if not all, of next week.

TODAY: With the boundary in place and plentiful sunshine to start the day we will initially receive some good environmental atmospheric heating with lots of moist air (high dew point temperatures) in place. We might see some good low cloud coverage develop shortly after sunrise as this moisture laden atmosphere starts to get worked on by the suns heat.,..but by mid morning those clouds will wane as true cumulus clouds begin to form in earnest.

The low this morning in the mid 70s will clear the path by noon for a high temperature heading toward 88 degrees...at least before the sea breeze kicks in which it will assuredly do today. In fact, yesterday Patrick AFB was nearly 88 degrees; then, within one hour after the sea breeze pushed in, they dropped a full 10 degrees as cool air above the ocean's surface was transported onto the coast east of I-95. The sea breeze doesn't make it inland very far under this synoptic set up, therefore no one west of I-95 or even US1 experienced the big temperature drop. No wonder though...the latest water temperature taken from Cocoa Beach was only 71 degrees!

Expect the true cumulus clouds to increase in number and size by noon...with thunderstorms and rain showers developing by mid afternoon and continuing and increasing in coverage until sunset after which they will quickly dissipate without support from the suns heat (for the most part). Any particular storm that happens to go up late in the day or early evening in an area that hasn't been worked over by earlier convection could linger until 9-10pm.

Some storms could be particularly strong today as we will have CAPE values in the 2500-2900 range, LIs around -7, and good EHI values right along and immediately east of where the sea breeze convergence occurs. In other words, all these values will be maximized east of Orlando in a zone bounded by Titusville to the north and West Palm Beach to the south and east of I-95. In other words, all of extreme East Central Florida has the chance to experience some frequent lightning (always dangerous), strong wind gusts, and maybe even small dinky hail under the strongest of storm updrafts. Storms will approach today from the west of just south of due west at 15-20 mph. We might even hear a severe thunderstorm warning or two during the day across portions of the east central peninsula! And as such, the possibility of a waterspout is not entirely out of the question (either over the rivers or the ocean).

Anyone planning outdoor activities should plan to have all actions completed by 2pm...not to say it's going to rain right after that time...but the possibilities will certainly exist by then...if not sooner. Rain coverage for the entire central peninsula, but the possibilities will exist mainly just for the east half of the state..with a wider coverage west of that axis.

TONIGHT: Rapidly improving conditions near sunset or shortly thereafter once the last vestiges of any storms that might have formulated die a painless death before the last quarter of the moon even begins to rise. Low in the low -mid 70s.

FRIDAY: Conditions will be similar to today but with slightly less dynamics as the focal point for the most likely activity shifts more toward the southeast quadrant of the peninsula. South Brevard will be more likely to experience that chance of a storm than those folks further north into Central Brevard. North Brevard will likely be entirely clear of any rain possibilities

We will again see a warm start to the day, but again cooling rapidly right along the coast east of US-1 and particularly east of the rivers once the sea breeze becomes established. Highs generally in the mid-80s.

THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND: High pressure both at the surface and aloft will initially be the dominating feature across the state which will greatly inhibit convection (rain/storm chances) other than over extreme S. Florida. A cold front, however, will push through by Sunday morning (a dry front) shifting our winds to the North and eventually NE-NNE by mid-late day Sunday. These winds will harbor in dryer and a little cooler air for the second half of the weekend and into mid-week next week. Lows around 71 and highs more toward the lower 80s. Actually, the folks right along the coast won't feel the impact from the front since they've already been feeling the cooling affects from the ocean (as mentioned earlier). It's is those folks well inland who have been seeing highs in the low - mid 90s lately that will really notice the cool down.

Our next true shot at rain is beyond the scope of any reliable information currently available. But if this upcoming pattern is true to form for this time of year, it will be quite some time before it rains again after today and perhaps tomorrow for Central Florida

Some Cloudiness Early, Otherwise Nearly Status Quo

Image: Bird of Paradise Bloom

SYNOPSIS: High pressure has weakened and looms over the Western Atlantic as a washed out frontal boundary fizzles over North Central Florida. Moisture from this boundary and land/sea breeze convergence over the eastern interior will trigger some rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the day today. Temperatures to maintain their regime of recent days but slightly cooler, mainly inland, due to cloud coverage.

TODAY: Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy with a light south wind. If we can get a land breeze going like we did overnight the temperatures will be significantly warmer right along the coast where the immediate winds off the ocean have had a big impact the past couple of days. But as of now, it does not appear that the pressure gradient which would normally provide a light SW wind will be overcome by the sea breeze. As a result, the high temperature today will likely be sometime around 10am along the coast (as it was yesterday)...at around 81 degrees.

There is a chance that some rain showers or even a thunderstorm could formulate any time after 1pm, but the trigger mechanism will be weak at best, so believe that for the most part most areas will remain rain free. That does not mean, please note, that it definitely will not rain. The chance of rain will be here...just where exactly it does so is impossible to say. The chance of rain as advertised on TV might be an over-rated 40% though. The greater chance will be over the interior and north of Orlando.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and rain chances ending the further into the evening we go with a low in the low-mid 70s.

THURSDAY: Similar to today, but with even less of a chance of rain than today and an overall less cloud coverage pattern once one averages out the day. Temperatures a bit warmer during the afternoon as a result of there being fewer clouds around.

FRIDAY: The high pressure over the Atlantic restrengthens to extend its axis across the southern or central peninsula and joins forces with one that has been building north from the Yucatan. These two entities will be the driving force behind our weather for several days to come. That being...there will be no weather with nearly a nearly routinely normal temperature regime for this time of year, both for the immediate coast and inland...yawn....!

SATURDAY -TUESDAY: As relayed yesterday, another front will begin to enter the extreme SE U.S. during the weekend, but the high pressure will remain the dominant force concerning the weather around here. That said, expect light onshore flow during the afternoons with the resultant high around 80 along the coast and low-mid 80s inland. Over night lows in the low 70s.

As long as the ocean temperature remains around 73 degrees, that is what the low temperature will be for communities along route A1A, and probably a little warmer than that away from the coast. Highs will, as has been the painfully monotonous pattern, higher inland and away from those Icelandic ocean waters! Brrrr.

The good thing in all of this is that the coastal folks don't need to turn on their air conditioners other than to dehumidify the air a bit. Summer is just around the corner though.

Remember, some of our greatest hot periods are not in the middle of the summer but rather during the last week of May- mid June.

1% Chance of Rain Late Today

Image: A Recent Pool Side Bloom

SYNOPSIS: Strong high pressure to the east of Florida is gradually weakening and will shift slowly east and a bit south during the day. In response, the wind will become more southerly to even SSW for a time early today cutting off the cool, ocean sea-breeze close to the coast before mid-afternoon.

TODAY: Kind of cool this morning with a low around 71 degrees. Light S-SSW wind through noon time. The more westerly we can get the wind the warmer it will be east of I-95. Yesterday only got up to 79 degrees in Cape Canaveral. That's a good 11 degrees cooler than most of the inland locations.  It shouldn't be quite as hazy today (not that it was all so bad yesterday).

There is a VERY small chance there could be a light rain shower near the coast around sunset, but the chance is so small I'd still say it's a zero percent chance...okay..let's say there's a 1% chance of rain today. For the most part the sky will be clear other than a few widely scattered stratocumulus clouds before noon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with a low near 71.

WEDNESDAY: The same front that created havoc over Dixie during the weekend will finally sink its pathetically weakened state into the Central Peninsula. This, along with a light sea-breeze / land-breeze convergence , westerly flow aloft, and relatively drier and cooler air in the mid-levels will act as a catalyst for rain showers and perhaps a gusty thunderstorm to develop by mid-afternoon through sunset.  Rain chances officially stand at 40% per the National Weather Service, but that might get bumped up contingent upon the actual amount of available moisture for storm generation tomorrow, which won't be determined until the weather balloons are launched Wednesday morning. My guess is that the chance will get bumped up.

High temperatures tomorrow will be cooler than they will be today because of additional cloud coverage and the development of those potential showers and storms during the peak heating hours.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain chances continue into the evening hours with a low in the low 70s. It should be noted that this isn't a "rain out" situation.  Just afternoon and evening 'stuff'.

THURSDAY: The "by now" totally decayed frontal boundary will linger somewhere across Central to South Central Florida and again act as a trigger for storm redevelopment during the afternoon hours. However, the chance of rain will be less than it will be on Wednesday, and temperatures as a result will also be a few degrees warmer. Probably much like they've been the past couple of days east of I-95 (which has already felt the cooling affects of the ocean)...whereas further inland they high temperature will be a few degrees cooler than the low-mid 90s that they have been experiencing.  

That's right, the temperature has been in the 90s inland the past couple of days. If you live right on or close to the coast you'd never know it though.  This is very typical of early to mid-spring temperature conditions though so I'm not surprised.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: High pressure will build north from the Yucatan/Mexico and cut of the moisture feed from the next frontal boundary that will be penetrating the Deep South and Florida. Thus, not expecting precipitation at this point with the next front as temperatures run right around average, or typical, for this time of year for the coast and inland.

Warmer Tuesday, Wet on Wednesday (Perhaps)

(Image: Sunrise off Harrison Ave, Cape Canaveral, Sunday)

Another mild early morning along all of Central Florida early this Monday morning. No significant changes the next 36 hours.

SYNOPSIS: Strong high pressure continues to the east of Florida. Circulation around this high will produce yet again a mildly breezy afternoon with a slight onshore component and subsidence aloft resulting in slightly hazy conditions and very warm to hot conditions west of I-95 (well inland). In fact, temperatures yesterday were as much as 10 degrees warmer in that location than along the A1A corridor.

TODAY: Clear to scattered clouds by late in the day sky conditions with SSE winds around 15-25 mph by afternoon. High along the coast of 83 degrees but as much as 10 degrees warmer west of I-95 and 5 degrees warmer west of US-1.

TONIGHT: A few scattered high clouds with winds becoming more southerly but maintaining their strength.

TUESDAY: This could be a warm one for the coast. A by then old frontal boundary will be sinking into the Florida Panhandle as a strong low pressure begins to shift off the coast of Maine. The low pressure will force that strong high pressure to sink further south and east and weaken with time. As a result the winds will begin to wane and shift more toward the SSW...a land breeze for the A1A corridor. Resultant high temperatures for the coast could be significantly warmer on Tuesday although well inland it will be just another day like those of recent days (temperature wise)....skies will be partly cloudy. In fact, by late in the day some light showers might materialize from a Central Brevard-Orlando line...but nothing of significance.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Light SW winds overnight and partly cloudy with a low in the low to mid 70s.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds becoming cloudy with a decent shot of afternoon evening rain showers and perhaps some thunderstorms for most if not all of East Central Florida. High temperatures will be tempered to the low - mid 80s under the mostly cloudy sky conditions. Remnant rain showers might linger well into the overnight hours.

THURSDAY: Much like Wednesday it will be mostly cloudy by afternoon with another round of rain showers and thunderstorms with slightly cooler temperatures due to cloud cover, but nothing of significance. In fact, I think our days of light jackets and cool weather are now GONE. I see no cooling trends anywhere on the horizon that are of notable difference from what we've been experiencing lately.

BY FRIDAY: As the boundary washes out across the central peninsula another one will be ready to move right on in to replace it. These boundaries will never make it to South Florida as it appears now. This seconds boundary does NOT look like it will have the potential to be a rain producer as the more recent one will be, as the atmosphere will have been "squeezed" out of the extra needed moisture to generate rain storms...

In general, in the longer term we will have climatologically normal temperatures with little in the way of rainfall. Everything will be "normal" in other words for this time of year.

Meanwhile, the Southern Plains will be cranking up next week for another severe weather event. This one will be further west than the ones that have occurred in Tornado Valley (the SE) lately (Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, etc). Wish I was out there next week.

No Change Through Tuesday

Image: Severe Thunderstorm In Osceola County  (green sky!!)

BORING but NICE are the operative words for the day. No change in the current weather regime through Tuesday.

SYNOPSIS:  Strong high pressure over the Western Atlantic will remain the dominant weather feature the next few days. Anticyclonic circulation around this system will harbor SSE winds at 10-22mph during the day and around 10-15 mph over night.  A weak trough of low pressure will gradually sink into the Central Peninsula early Wednesday which will act as a focus for rain/thundershower activity from Wednesday - Friday.   Additionally, the strong southerly flow we've been experiencing of late will weaken and seabreeze collision type thunderstorms will be the mechanism to also trigger thunderstorms (much like during the summer months).  Yahoo!

TODAY: Breezy SSE winds of 10-23 mph with a high along the coast of 83 degrees and about 5-8 degrees warmer west of the Indian River. (about 3-5 degrees warmer west of the Banana River).  Skies will be sunny with nary a cloud in the sky.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with a low along the coast in modified oceanic air of 73 degrees (in other words, right at the ocean's water temperature)...maybe a degree or two warmer inland.

MONDAY: Same as today...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

TUESDAY: Slight increase in some clouds but otherwise no change to winds or temperatures.

WEDNESDAY: The boundary which is creating havoc in the Deep South and by now also in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. will finally sink into Central Florida. This will be the focus, along with seabreeze convergence from both coasts, for rain showers and thunderstorms.  These should be inheritantly generic in nature with the greatest threat being lightning (as is always the case with thunderstorms).

THURSDAY - FRIDAY: As of now..looks to be about the same as Wednesday as the boundary will wash out over the region.  Temperatures will be about 3-5 degrees cooler inland but remain about the same as they are today along the coast...in fact..it may actually get warmer along the coast as we will lose the strong onshore flow that has been continuous 24 hours a day lately.  Mornings will be nearly calm and partly cloudy with a light land breeze possible of 5 mph or less..afternoons will have an onshore flow of 10-15mph with, again, afternoon thunderstorms.  It will be like summer for the most part except the afternoon high tempeartures will be about 5-9 degrees cooler than our typical summer day.

MEANWHILE: Severe weather including tornadoes and flooding continues to plague Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Arkansas...this area will spread east and north today and tommorrow..and after today will be mostly a flooding threat for these regions...while Florida (except for the panhandle)..will remain high and dry until Tuesday...where the northern parts will be first to feel the affects of the weakening front (boundary) that will sink into the Central Peninsula on Wednesday.

Warmest Since Early September Today

The heat is finally going to be on today, and more so as we go through Tuesday. Chance of rain is pretty much nil during this period as well.

SYNOPSIS:Strong high pressure continues just to the east of Florida, and clockwise circulation around this high will generate a SSE wind of 10-20 mph this afternoon under mostly partly cloudy skies. Although the air will be humid, warm air aloft will preclude air parcels from rising much to create the ever so desired thunderstorms.

TODAY-TUESDAY: Patches of altocumulus clouds will be the predominant cloud status...with a few stratocu thrown in for good measure, but it will be mostly sunny for the most part with a high near 85 along the coast and near 90 as one works their way west and away from the coast.

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday and Monday...so enjoy. No rain is in the outlook until at least Wednesday...and I'd bet my bottom dollar that even that possibility will be slim pickins.

We are literally in the lull before the proverbial storm(s) which begin in earnest on June 1. I don't see any real cool weather on the horizon..although we can still expect some days of slightly cooler mornings from time to time before summer comes into full swing.

Enjoy! And keep that sunscreen handy ;-)

Prepare to Break Out the Sunscreen & On With the A/C

Image: The end of our full moon until next cycle

 

SYNOPSIS:  Return, anticyclonic flow around strong high pressure centered a few hundred miles east of Florida will result in a soggy, SSE flow across the state today resulting in mostly cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy skies and SSE winds at 10-20 mph. 

 

TODAY: Rain showers are not out of the question anytime after about 2pm but they should be no worse than moderate in intensity if they happen at all.  Thunder?  I see thunderstorms in the forecast but I believe that upper level temperatures will warm too much to warrant anything more than maybe a muted rumble at most despite all the available atmospheric moisture.  The warm air aloft will temper down any chance of a good rising parcel, thus precluding good vertical cloud build ups (thunderstorms). Heating of the day should only aggravate cloud coverage...and speaking of cloud coverage and SSE winds off the ocean....... 

 

......the combination of clouds and an oceanic trajectory of the wind will keep high temperatures limited to the mid-upper 70s today...a small notch cooler than yesterday.  The day will be everything less than ideal for getting a tan today due to the clouds and sticky feel to the air to boot.  Not to mention that some light rain could fall just about anytime between the hours of 1pm -10pm.  Pinning down a more exact time for rainfall is difficult at best given the time of day it is as of this writing (5:00am) and lack of any triggering mechanisms approaching the would harbor a more conclusive forecast. Vague is the word for the day!!

 

TONIGHT: Skies will clear over night with a low around 72 along the coast (temperatures moderated close to the coast due to the gradually warming ocean waters)...in the mid-upper 60s well inland and along the west coast.

 

THE WEEKEND: Break out the sunscreen and turn on the A/C!! Partly cloudy with perhaps an isolated inland rainshower Saturday during the peak heating hours. Otherwise, much warmer with a high in the mid 80s (let's say 83 along the coast and 86 inland) Saturday and mid-upper 80s on Sunday.  Lows in the low 70s. Goodness gracious.  Winds SSE-SE at 10-15 mph.  I'm hitting the pool!

 

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Continued warm as the 500mb heights rise as this layer buckles in response to a deepening trough to the west. As a result of height rises at all levels of the atmosphere (warm air advection aloft)...rain chances will be close to nil and temperatures inland will rise into the lower 90s inland..around 91-93 range..and around 86 right on the coast east of the Banana River (the ocean will keep the immediate coast a little cooler).  Heavens to Betsy..it will be just like early summer!

 

MID WEEK NEXT WEEK: Temperatures moderate a bit as the continental flow becomes more zonal in nature and heights begin to fall.  A boundary will be in the area Tuesday  through Thursday so we can introduce a low end chance or rain or perhaps a thunderstorm at this point.  Refinement for this period will definitely be necessary in the coming days.

Chance of a Thunderstorm Tomorrow?!!

Photo: An early morning full moon

 

SYNOPSIS: High pressure is centered just off the east central Florida coast early this morning before sunrise. The high will strengthen and gradually shift east during the course of the next 48 hours.  Meanwhile, the old frontal boundary that passed through the other day resides just south of the Florida straits. This boundary will begin to move north and enter Central Florida on Friday.  Steering winds aloft will continue out of the west.

 

TODAY: Just some high cirrus clouds again today with a light north wind initially but veering during the course of the day. During the majority of the day the wind will be  east to ESE...but veer even more to SE by day's end. Very pleasant with a high near 77 along the coast with the wind at 10mph or less.

 

TONIGHT: A few high clouds but otherwise uneventful with a SSE wind at 5mph or less. Low near 70 along the coast and a few degrees cooler west of the Banana River.

 

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with a breezy south wind of 10-20mph.  The old boundary that is sitting over the Florida Straits will have shifted north toward Central Florida and will become the focus for a chance of showers or even a thunderstorm by mid-late afternoon. Kind of hard to believe.  It should be noted that not all the forecast models agree on the thunderstorm scenario as of last night...so we'll see what happens. No severe weather is yet expected, but an isolated thunderstorm can have a mind of its own...so it could get interesting.  High on Friday near 84 degrees.

 

SATURDAY AND BEYOND: The story for this period is going to be the very warm to hot temperatures! High close to 90 even along the coast by Monday...and with dew points in the low 70s we could be seeing heat indices approaching 100 inland....stay safe out there with the heat and sun during the weekend and into early next week folks...don't get TOO sun burnt!!

A Little Cooler and Dry Today

Image: Bird of Paradise Depicting Our weather ...PARADISE

 

I didn't post yesterday as there really isn't much to blog about. All of the active weather will be in the Corn Belt and perhaps the Central Plains states during the next 24 hours

 

SYNOPSIS: Short wave high pressure to pass over head today in the wake of a cold front that went through overnight.

Drier and cooler air is filtering in behind the front. The high pressure will stretch east/west across the state and be in the vicinity at the surface and aloft for quite a few days in the near future.

 

TODAY:  A few high cirrus clouds and very widely stratocumulus clouds. North wind to start the day will go near calm and become light from the Northeast by afternoon. High temperature to peak at about 78 degrees by 3pm but might be tempered down a bit right along the coast as the winds gain their onshore component off the ocean.  All in all a very pleasant day for sunning, fishing, or any out door activities.

 

TONIGHT: A few high cirrus clouds and a tad cool with a low in the upper 60s along the coast and low 60s inland. Near calm wind by the time we're ready for a beautiful sunrise.

 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND: No rain in sight out to Day 10...at least at this time that's how it looks. High pressure will shift further east resulting in SE winds and warmer temperatures. Partly cloudy days and nights and gradually becoming more humid with time, but all in all very uneventful. ENJOY!

Storm Start to End on Sunny Note

 Violent sky a YeeHaw Junction, FL

 

A low pressure trough has passed Central Florida and is now across South Florida.

The rain associated with it has pushed south and clearing skies will soon be on the horizon

as much drier air filters into the region.  The tornado watch has long since been lifted for our area.

 

TODAY: Kaboom! We were in a Tornado Watch earlier but that has since been lifted as the storms weakened and moved south.  The highlight for today will be the wind. Expect winds by noon time to be WSW at 20 gusting to 32mph as the sky clears.  Full clearing should occur by 1-2pm...but expect that some lower level cumulus clouds will form above the still moisture laden lowest levels as soon as the sun comes out. We could reach 85 degrees today if the sun comes out soon enough...otherwise the high will be in the low 80s.

 

TONIGHT: Clear with continued elevated winds of 10 gusting to 18 mph from the WSW. Low of 70 along the coast and slightly cooler by a few degrees well inland in wind protected areas.

 

TUESDAY: A few cumulus clouds but generally sunny and continued breezy. Winds WSW at 12 gusting to 24 mph.  High of 86 degrees along the coast.

 

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: A dry cold front will go through over night. Expect a morning low under clear skies of 65 degrees with waning winds out of the north at 10-15 mph by sunrise. 

 

WEDNESDAY: Winds veering and weakening during the day as high pressure moves overhead. Maybe a few high cirrus patches but generally sunny and very pleasant with a high near 77degrees.

 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: Another day in the mid- 60s to start the day with light East winds by noon and a high of 76 near the coast but closer to 80 away from the ocean waters. Sunny.

 

FRIDAY: We introduce a chance of rain/thunderstorms by mid-late afternoon and warmer. More to come as the time draws nigh.

Blustery, Sky Art-ish Day Ahead

Image: Lola doesn't appear concerned over the weather to come

 

Yesterday was quite the severe weather day with 11 folks having died as a result due to tornadoes.

The same system that spawned the activity is now moving E-NE into the mid-Atlantic with a trailing cold front draped along the Florida Panhandle this morning. The front will make slow progress toward Central Florida during the course of the next 24 hours.

 

TODAY: Partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy with a variety of cloud types in the sky all day.  South to SSW winds at 10 gusting to 27 mph at times and a high around 83 degrees. 

 

No rain for the most part during daylight hours.  I believe at this time any rain during the daylight hours will remain north of a line running from Brooksville to Oakhill (on the east coast).  Note, however, that this is VERY close and it will only take one shower/storm to be a notch south of this line to be in Brevard County.

Any storm that forms today could easily become severe, but I believe they will be so few and far between south of the aforementioned line that I'm leaving rain out of the daylight forecast.

 

TONIGHT: Rain/storm chances increase somewhat , particularly from midnight to 9am Monday.  Storms could become severe due to strong wind gusts in excess of 55 mph, but those again will be very few and far between, so I'm not really too concerned at this point in time.  Otherwise it will be mostly cloudy with a southwest wind of 10-19mph.

 

NOTE 1: Yesterday's post was pretty much a 'worse case scenario' post and, as it is, none of that worst case 'stuff' is as likely to materialize (i.e., tornadoes) as was discussed yesterday as a potential. Why?  Namely because during the time that the wind fields will be favorable for tornadoes the mid-levels of the atmosphere will be too dry to generate a storm. By the time we get enough deep layer moisture in here the winds will have become mainly unidirectional with height...although they will be quite strong aloft at the jet stream level.  Therefore, the biggest threat from storms late today and tonight I believe will be straight line winds. BUT, that's not to say a tornado isn't entirely out of the question!

 

NOTE 2: Any significant changes in this forecast will be posted as (or if) time allows

 

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MONDAY: Lingering rain and maybe some thunder early but tapering off by 9am-11am time frame (that is, if it even rains at all!).  I've been watching this system approaching for days and hearing/seeing the forecasts...and this looks a lot like a situation where the system might poop out on us.  However, there is a fly in the ointment.  One model, the GFS, is indicating we could get some downright heavy rains between 2am-9am...so I'm not tossing the rag in the bucket quite yet.  Winds will be west at 10-20mph with a high around 79 degrees.

 

Rains should end no matter what materializes (or doesn't materialize) by noon time in the Central and Northern part of the state...but continue later in the day the further south one gets.

 

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing with a  low near 68 degrees along the coast and cooler inland.  Wind west at 5-10mph.

 

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Another weak front will pass on Wednesday with some clouds, but other than that our temperatures will be right around seasonable norms with clear to partly cloudy skies during the day and mostly clear at night.  Winds will become less than 10mph by Wednesday from variable directions.  Specifics to follow as these days approach.

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Deep South Nott Under the Gun...Under the BOMB!

Image: Sunrise off Harrison Ave this morning

 

A major severe weather outbreak is getting primed for explosion today across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Kentucky as a strong low both surface and aloft cranks into the region. Anitcyclonic circulation around strong high pressure east of Florida combined with strong cyclonic circulation around this complex low pressure system will induce influx of a warm and very moist subtropical air mass into the region. This coupled with pockets of upper level energy in combination with strong shearing winds in speed and direction will literally crank the warm, moist air mass with explosive results. Strong updrafts in supercell thunderstorms will easily acquire rotation which will thusly result in severely strong surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. I would not be surprised to hear of at least one violent, long tracked tornado today into tonight within this region.

 

Meanwhile, closer to home:

 

TODAY:  Partly cloudy, warmish, blustery and 'sticky' with a SSE wind at 12-22 mph and a high near 80F degrees. 

 

TONIGHT: High and some midlevel clouds on the increase. Comfortable temperature with a low along the coast of 73. Sticky and goo-ey along the beach as plenty of salty particulates will be embedded and carried aloft off the ocean within the winds blowing at 10-15mph out of the SSE-S.

 

EARLY SUNDAY: High cloud overcast - broken mid-level deck-lower clouds developing within a few hours after sunrise. Salty and sticky right on the coast as particulates from the ocean will be carried aloft and combine with a very moist air mass. Winds South at 15-20mph with gusts to 28mph developing by noon.

 

**FROM THIS PORTION ON WILL REQUIRE REVISION TOMORROW MORNING FOR SURE**

 

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It currently appears that the first of at least two more 'outstanding' rain chances will exist from early through late afternoon as at least one of maybe more prefrontal troughs enter the region.  In fact, the strong winds nearly parallel to the coast may in and of itself produce a trough that will run up down along the Coastal Plain.. TRICKY STUFF HERE FOLKS.

 

Thus, a chance of thunderstorms within the Central portion of the state (they will have already been present just to the north overnight) anytime after 1:30pm. Some of the storms could be quite strong!! In the interim, we should warm to 84F along the coast and into the upper 80s west of US-1. The air will be moisture laden and warm, but the sun will struggle to make an appearance.  We might be in a severe thunderstorm watch or even a tornado watch by early-mid afternoon!!

 

SUNDAY NIGHT/OVERNIGHT: The second or perhaps third opportunity to receive rain will make its presence known. Again, storms could be severe and possibly produce a tornado. We might be at the southern edge of a tornado watch during this time.

 

EARLY MONDAY: Storms to have shifted south but some rain might still be lingering, otherwise cloudy with a west wind of 10-15mph.

 

REST OF MONDAY: Eventually partly cloudy by late afternoon with continued storms from around a Palm Beach-Fort Myers line continuing throughout the day. Somewhat breezy W-WNW winds and a high in the mid-upper 70s.

 

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Uneventfully pleasant, with finer details as to what will be influencing our weather at that time once Monday is over with.  For now, suffice it to say it appears another weak front will enter the picture with the only affect of producing some clouds...otherwise the wind will gradually weaken and swing around to the east midweek.

 

Whilst Pleasant Here - There Were Tornadoes Elsewhere

Photo shows the sunrise yesterday morning

 

 

It's still dark out as I type this morning's post at 5am. Yesterday was quite pleasant, and we can expect more of the same today.  The same cannot be said though for parts of Texas, Colorado, and Kansas yesterday where up to 32 tornado reports came in. One tornado near Kendall, Kansas was reportedly nearly 1 mile wide! All the while we sat here ignorant of what was transpiring on the Central and Southern Plains.

 

SYNOPSIS:  Low pressure over extreme eastern Colorado will continue to press east toward the Midwest states as high pressure remains locked just to the east of the Florida peninsula for today.

 

TODAY: Much the same as yesterday other than the wind direction. Morning low around 66F degrees along the beaches and closer to 63F west of Merritt Island.  Ironically, one of the coldest temperatures in all of Central Florida so far is at the Space Center with a reading of 59F.  It won't be quite as 'breezy' today with a SE wind around 10-15mph (yesterday the wind was northerly for the first half of the day)  and some wisps of cirrus clouds streaming overhead off and on throughout the day.  A few small patches of cumulus can also be expected mainly over the Cape and west of Merritt Island during the pre-noon hours. High along the coast again near 79F degrees and a couple mercury notches higher from Merritt Island and points west toward Orlando.

 

TONIGHT: Much the same as last night with a low in the upper 60s (cooler inland) with some thin high clouds and very light SE hint to what I would call "air movement"...that is, little as far as 'wind' goes.

 

SATURDAY: Increasing high clouds with a high all areas breaking 80F. Coasts about 81F and inland about 85F. SSE winds at 10-15mph but otherwise another nice day.  Could actually start to feel 'overly warm' in wind protected areas that receive full sunlight as well.  Severe weather will be ongoing in Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, extreme S. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana...that is...parts of the Midwest and Deep South.  We'll be hearing about supercell thunderstorms, large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes in the news.

 

SATURDAY NIGHT: Light south wind at 6-12mph under a veil of cirrus and some cirrostratus clouds. Low around 71 degrees....as the severe weather in the other cited locales continues and pushes east toward the northeast and mid-Atlantic states.

 

SUNDAY: Generally cloudy with clouds increasing even more at all levels of the atmosphere throughout the day as the system that will have generated severe weather from Louisiana to Mississippi to  Kentucky and Tennessee and all points in-between shoves east and north.  Severe weather will be overspreading parts of the northeast and mid-Atlantic on Sunday, and I'm sure we'll be hearing all about it on the news and especially on The Weather Channel.  Despite the clouds, we could still reach 85 degrees with a SW wind of 12-22mph.

 

SUNDAY NIGHT: Our turn!  Decent chance of rain and perhaps some thunderclaps and lightning bolts.  At this time I still don't think the threat of severe weather will be nearly as great for Central Florida as it will be from a Daytona-Brooksville line and points north, but it will be a close call, so it all bears watching.  Another area that might end up seeing severe weather is to our south as a separate impulse breaks off from the 'main-stream' of activity and hits from a Ft. Myers-Palm Beach County and points south.  In other words, we'll be in the inevitable 'hole' of activity.  I can easily be wrong though so STAY-TUNED.  I believe we will see 'some' rain. One can only hope for some rain as we are now entering brush fire season shortly and can use every drop we can get.

 

MONDAY: The day will start out cloudy with lingering rainshower activity in the vicinity, but conditions will improve throughout the day.  As skies clear we could again see 85 degrees before some moderately 'coolish' air enters the picture Monday night with a W-NW wind of 12-22 mph.

 

After Monday morning no 'siggy' weather to speak of for QUITE sometime.  Comfortable temperatures, light winds, and variable sky conditions should prevail for the remainder of the week.

Severely "Clear and Pleasant" Today

 Severe  -  strict in judgment, discipline, or government

 

SYNOPSIS: High pressure both at the surface and aloft will dominant the weather across East Central Florida through Saturday. A few sparse cirrus clouds may whisp over the region as we will be under anticyclonic curvature aloft. At the surface, high pressure will move across the N. Gulf of Mexico and be directly overhead by Friday morning providing for prime radiational cooling.

 

TODAY: Abundant sunshine!!  Even though it's still dark out I'd bet my bottom dollar it will be clear upon rising of the sun. The temperature in Cape Canaveral as of 6am is around 67 degrees, with lower temperatures inland. Wind is calm.

 

Expect a morning low around 66 degrees with clear skies and calm winds.  Temperatures will be quick to warm with a high reaching around 80 degrees by noon time.

 

Inland areas today will reach the low 80s, whereas I'm anticipating a weak sea breeze of 5mph or less to develop along the immediate coast east of US-1 by the 1-2 pm time frame during the peak heating hours.  This should temper down the temperature a bit over the very immediate coastal communities to around 78 degrees, whereas inland areas will feel no affect of the cooler, modified oceanic air mass.

 

TONIGHT: A night with prime radiational cooling with high pressure center both at the surface and aloft directly overhead. Lows along the coast will actually be modified upward of what they could be along the A1A corridor because of close proximity to the ocean. Lows in the mid-60s along the coast and closer to 61 west of the Banana River.

 

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: High pressure to shift east of the state with an east wind gradually veering to ESE then SE then eventually South by Saturday.  Highs continuing the same pattern as today but warming by as much as 5 more degrees by Saturday afternoon.  The coast will continue to feel the cooling affect produced by ocean temperatures now in the low 70s each day. 

 

We will see a continual increase in mainly high clouds and some widely scattered cumulus clouds through out the period.

 

SUNDAY: The storm system that by this time will have been widely publicized due to all the severe weather it will have produced from Colorado to Alabama will be knocking on 'heaven's"  door.  Late Sunday into Sunday night/Monday morning will be the time to watch.

 

LATE SUNDAY/VERY EARLY MONDAY: I might be writing about the possibility of severe weather to nearly approach the area for this time frame!  More to come as the time draws nigh, but at this time I suspect we might dodge the 'severe' level bullet.

FCST AMEND NO. 001

This is an Amendment to today's forecast post for the period "TODAY":

Include during the remaining daylight hours of today the chance of rainshowers and Isolated thunderstorms. Early morning model runs are now indicating a second boundary which may produce enough lift combined with unquestionably enough moisture for such to manifest with the heating of the day.

 

NOTE: This was my original thinking of what would happen for today which is why I had rain chances in the post made yesterday. I amended that one to take rain chances out; however, it does not seem prudent to re-introduce rain chances back in (after I had amended to take them out).

 

We are not talking wash out conditions by any means, but I also didn't want anyone to believe that there was no way it could rain again today, namely because the possibility is still quite real.

 

Geesh...when will I learn to trust my own initial gut feelings. This is often the bane of a storm chasers existence too! 

 

Good day to all who read this and stay dry.

 

"We Heard Thunder...."

Images: Depict the thunderstorm from very early this morning from a variety of perspectives as well as show the location of the small surface low pressure area and a forecast plat from the RUC model

"I heard thunder, but there's no rain....this kind of thunder break wall on window pane" - The Prodigy

Interesting mini-mini-event early this morning as a thunderstorm prompted a special weather statement regarding the concern for funnel clouds which occurred mainly between 4-4:30 a.m. in the Viera area. The possibility for thunder was mentioned yesterday, so this did not come as a total surprise. Otherwise, most areas received what appears to be about 1/4" of rain or thereabouts early this Wednesday morning.

SYNOPSIS: Axis of low pressure and small surface low over east central Florida will all push east today as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico quickly builds east on its heals across the region late this morning into the afternoon hours

TODAY: Cloudiness and possibility a weak patch of a sprinkle will pass overhead during the remainder of the predawn hours and up until nearly noon time. Winds will be light initially but eventually become west right about the time clearing will commence. Because of the early cloudiness some of our heating of the day will be hampered but no entirely. Thus, we can expect a high much like it's been in previous days...or actually warmer! Why? Because we will not have a sea breeze today. YEAH! Thus, we should see just about 80 degrees today under gradually clearing skies. By sunset there will be only a few scrapplings in the sky.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with a low in the mid 60s along the coast and closer to 60 working west of I-95.

THURSDAY - SATURDAY: Clear to partly cloudy with a high around 80-84 degrees with light winds. Coolest close to the Atlantic waters. Lows gradually warming and approaching 70 right along the coast and mid 60s well inland.

SUNDAY -TUESDAY: Okay, time to get flaky again. Another system will be approaching the area...but I think we'll eke out Sunday (and thus the weekend) for the most part before any rain hits. The next system may introduce yet again a chance of the wet stuff...but the ingredients for Monday and Tuesday are just now beginning to impact the U.S. West Coast, so let's leave that for a better time when a possibly more affirmative assertion as to it effects can be determined.

For now, suffice it to say it looks like we could get some rain on Monday; however, not expecting a big impact to temperatures. OH...and talking about temperatures....we should warm up significantly over the weekend into Monday. In fact, the coast could see 87 degrees by Monday!

AMENDMENT: TO 4/20/10 Post

NOTE: the rain conditions cited for Wednesday in the previous post are valid only through 8am. After that point rain chances will be close to zero. Everything else in the forecast post remains unchanged. In other words, for the majority of Wednesday there is close to no chance of rain after sunrise.

First Vestiges of Summer

Image: A Distant Florida thunderstorm looks like a large mountain of billowing cotton

The technical term for the cloud type that describes a thunderstorm is "cumulonimbus" in the most general way. There exists a variety of adjectives to this, but we'll leave it simple enough. I bring this up because the first vestiges of summer will be experienced the rest of the week ahead. But don't be surprised to see such a pattern be dismissed, as our not so official June 1/first day of summer is still far enough away that we could still see a significant stray from this pattern to occur i[ until mid-May.

SYNOPSIS: A short-wave trough will pass by to the north later this afternoon and evening. An appendant axis of lower pressure will exist with this system down the spine of the state. The result will be another day of inland shower and thunderstorm activity as was the case yesterday. Yet another one will pass on Wednesday. After these systems have passed strong high pressure will build north out of the Gulf of Mexico for the following several days which will exert its influence across the state through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

TODAY: A day very similar to yesterday will reign supreme with abundant sunshine for most of the day with no significant cloud coverage. Skies will be partly cloudy with a high along the immediate coast in the mid-70s but a good 5 degrees plus warmer once one gets west of US-1. I'm expecting that by late in the afternoon there could be a decent coverage of thunderstorm activity inland. I talked with someone from the Orlando area yesterday who stated that they experienced almost constant lightning in a storm they had there, if you can believe it.

Despite the fact that these storms will exist they will have an awful time trying to penetrate the modified oceanic air mass along the coast. Therefore, the coastal communities should be spared the wrath and only see an increase in clouds very late in the afternoon and into the evening with perhaps a driplet or two falling from the heavens upon our land (east of I-95).

All poetic license aside, expect that yesterday layed the blue print for today's weather. That is to say...photocopy the days.

WEDNESDAY: Actually, despite what I've been seeing/hearing over the media waves, I'm not so sure we will remain dry. Another short-wave trough (disturbance) will pass to the north but this one appears to be stronger.

With that said, the coastal communities might also be shared the wealth of the wet stuff on Wednesday with a thunderstorm or rain shower much more of a distinct possibility. Even so, if the coast does get in on the act one will still have to be in the right spot (or wrong spot depending on how one looks at it) to require the rain slicker.

In other words, there's a little better chance that the areas east of I-95 will see some rain and some of the boisterous loud bangers by late afternoon through the evening.

In fact, one of the models is indicating a healthy coverage up and down the east coast tomorrow by late afternoon lasting into the evening as it moves from west to east and out to sea.

But be not dismayed, because after Wednesday it will be a while before we see rain.

THURSDAY (and BEYOND): Despite what happens on Wednesday, if anything, we will start to see height rises in the 500mb layer which will result in a slow warming trend. Indeed, each day will be progressively warmer from Thursday through at least Sunday.

In fact, by Sunday the beaches could experience 85 degrees and areas west of I-95 will be looking at the big 9-0 on the old mercury (assuming one is not looking at a digital thermometer).

The next system to reach the state with any impact now appears to occur on Tuesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that get extended yet further out into the future if ever.

SUMMARY: Chance of rain on the coast Wednesday then warmer and dry into the weekend.

A Tale of Two Lows

Images: Forecasted system locations at 2pm from the NAM model and last nights satellite image which I just thought looked pretty cool.

Okay, so today might not be a total washout as expected, but the rains aren't over yet. You can see from the image that we still have two lows and a front in the afternoon. I believe that as the sun rises some of the clouds over us will break up some to mostly cloudy and maybe even partly cloudy conditions. But with heating of the day and a little instability, we could stand a chance to hear thunder today. Tomorrow will be similar. If we actaully get a strong thunderstorm today it could produce very small hail, but at this point even thunder is a big stretch.

THIS MORNING: Cloudy at first then breaking up a bit by 10:30am. Wind ENE to NE at 3-9 mph.

LATER TODAY: Rain showers and thundershowers to form across the state. Believe your best chance to hear thunder will be between 2-9pm. Rains ending late. I have to say there's a better than average chance we will get wet along the East Coast of Florida just about anywhere. High temperature around 76 with ENE winds at 10-18mph.

TUESDAY: Pretty much a carbon copy of what today will bring.

FURTHER OUT: With too much unsurety...and being that this is only an unofficial blog, I think I can say with some confidence that no one else truly knows what Wednesday will bring. But for the most part it appears our rain/thunderstorm activity will be diurnally driven. And that could be anytime in the afternoon, mainly after 3pm for folks near the coasts - earlier inland.