Few Showers Early Afternoon to Early Evening...Few Storms Inland/South

(Image: Cat 4 Igor imagery from last night)

SYNOPSIS: Frontal boundary at surface meanders over N. Florida this morning and dissipating as mid-level boundary works south into Central Florida this morning. Sharp drop in upper level moisture observed on vapor loops with low level drying lagging back toward north of Daytona.

 

TODAY: Things occurred yesterday as expected, with the NAM coming closer to reality when we worked into the after sunset hours with heavy activity moving down the east coast. No other model showed this event to unfold, so kudos to the NAM which I haven't been giving much credence too. The main slug of activity died as it crossed the Brevard County line to the north as it tried to cross the mid-level ridge axis which was located just north of the Cape. In staying with yesterday's line of thinking, believe the mid-level / low level drying will be a little slow in fully manifesting today south of Daytona. Sea breeze to generate before noon but remain light until very late this afternoon. Showers could develop just west of I-95 during development of the sea breeze along it's leading edge as it pushes inland, but those will be few and far between. Before that time no showers anywhere except well off shore. Oddly, I think if the immediate coast is to see showers today it will be behind the sea breeze from Vero Beach north to the Cape between 2-8pm as the mid-level ENE wind kicks in across the offshore region where greater moisture will reside and be advected onshore until maybe an hour after sunset. All activity today will primarily run south of a line running diagonally from the Cape to Central Osceola County toward Sarasota, with the strongest/most activity limited to near Okeechobee County,  Southern Polk, and further SW toward Ft. Myers to Port Charlotte.

 

TUESDAY-NEXT TUESDAY: Little chance of rain throughout the period, with maybe some occasional nocturnal shower activity affecting solely the immediate coast in isolated and light fashion anywhere from Daytona to Miami east of I-95 in the over night and early morning hours.

 

Seas will be on the increase as IGOR makes its pass well to the east of the state, with rip currents being a big hazard next weekend beginning around Thursday.

 

In wrap up: Watch for showers moving on shore along the coast from Vero Beach to the Cape later this afternoon, with storms well inland and south later this afternoon into the early evening. After today, everywhere in the state much  more quiet.