"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Brief Sprinkles Possible Through Friday

(Image: Photograph of IGOR from space late yesterday before it got dark)
SYNOPSIS: High pressure are the words of the next 12 days, coupled with tropical systems of no weather impact of only satellite imagery interest.
High pressure prevails all along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard this morning and the SE States, across Florida, and into the Bahamas. Strong Hurricane Igor well out in the Atlantic almost achieved CAT 5 status last night and may do so again anytime between later today through early Saturday. Tropical Storm Karl just made landfall on the Yucatan to emerge in the Bay of Campeche by tomorrow and likely achieve hurricane status before making a second landfall in Mexico.
TODAY-FRIDAY: Very dry air aloft with a prevailing easterly flow prevails across all of North, Central, and South Central Florida. Only persistent low level moisture remains from Ft. Lauderdale and south over the SE portion of the state. Very shallow layer of higher dew points (moisture) has developed over night along the immediate eastern shores from Jacksonville to Ft. Pierce. There's just enough moisture to generate some nice, rain threatening clouds, although none has yet to be detected on radar other than well off shore of Central Florida and making landfall near Miami and the keys.
With this said, and these conditions expected to prevail through Friday, across all of Eastern North, Central, and South Central Florida expect periods of enhanced low level, pretty clouds with a small chance of a few drops coming down under the larger clouds. We do have a chance that from Brevard Vero to Jacksonville (particularly Brevard) that the moisture level may increase between 1-4pm for cloud enhancement enough to generate a measurable amount of rain along the immediate coast east of I-95, but that would be the worst case scenario. This will be the case for the next two days as well...most likely in the morning hours though the next two days. Otherwise, persistent easterly winds across the state will prevails which will wane a bit after 9pm each evening.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: Hurricane Igor will be making its pass east of the state overnight Friday into Saturday. Seas and rip currents will be on the increase with waves well offshore reaching near 10 ft with onshore winds. Rip currents will be the story for all of the U.S. Seaboard, particularly north of Jupiter Inlet to Hatteras then further north with time. The weather will be almost entirely dry for the whole state as perhaps weak subsidence around the periphery of Igor reaches the offshore waters precluding formation of showers over they area ...thus precluding the possibility of onshore moving showers since none will be generated. Skies could be almost down right totally clear at times on Saturday and Sunday.
MONDAY-BEYOND: Moisture to a moderate degree will be on the increase as we work toward Tuesday, but nothing significantly so. Easterly flow will prevail as high pressure remains intact from Texas to offshore Florida. Chances of onshore moving showers picks up, but no thunderstorms expected the entire time frame through at least Wednesday.
TROPICS: Outside of Karl and Igor (which will be quite the sight to see on satellite imagery the next 4 days) there is little of interest. Igor could strengthen once again and just MAYBE reach CAT 5 status anytime until Saturday, after which point it will enter waters still stirred up by Earl east of Hatteras and weaken significantly from that point on. No land impact to the U.S.
Of greater interest at this point is the Caribbean beginning early next week, and particularly from September 22 and points on. Indications, although in varying degree...are pointing to more development across this entire region especially off the NE tip of South America. The GFS has been showing a U.S. landfall of some sort of named storm anywhere from Texas to Florida with more activity to follow. October could be quite active in the Caribbean and the Gulf as we enter the last week of September and head into October. Trick or Treat?

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