"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Pattern Change In Store Very Soon

(Image: Sunrise beams filtered by vertically challenged cumulus as Igor passes well to the east)
SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST SYNOPSIS: High pressure encompasses the entire eastern U.S. seaboard in the wake of IGOR. This system has been a thorn in the side as far as drought conditions are concerned for portions of East Central Florida (namely Brevard County now in a moderate drought). Subsidence behind the system combined with continental high pressure over the southeast states played hardball against towering cloud formation...if there was any clouds to be found at times. But IGOR is now getting out of the equation (and our hair). Bermuda didn't fare bad at all considering the storm was a Cat 4 before it's near central passage to the island at Cat 1 strength. Seems erosion and inconveniences was the gist of the system there.
In any case, as IGOR moves away high pressure over the SE states will merge with the high pressure out over the Atlantic (in Igor's wake) to produce a massive swath of easterly flow stretching far out into the Atlantic and across the state, which will weaken during the course of a week. In the meantime, perhaps the first trough of the fall season (right on time for official fall by the way), will be moving into the intermountain region. Initially, our weather locally in Florida will be dictated by deep, broad easterly flow with periods of enhanced low to mid-level atmospheric moisture availability. As such, with time, showers and eventually thunderstorms will become prevalent for many days ahead.
The rest of today's post will speak mostly in generalities given that the predominantly dry weather of recent days will persist through most of today.
But a change appears to be in order as has been indicated by models would occur for several days now, as described in the previous paragraph.  The problem has been a broad disparity between the models as to when this change from our recent dry days to a more climatically normal regime would resume. Model consensus is finally becoming apparent enough to warrant a post. As such, daily posts will likely be required in coming days as each day will have it's own bag of tricks to deal with...especially as we approach this time one week from today.
TODAY: Same old same old, until late this afternoon. For the most part, today will be the same story as what we saw all weekend and yesterday. Albeit, there was a few very light showers here and there over the weekend, but they were so far and few between and so light that they aren't worth mention. Yesterday was the driest of all. The clouds in Central Florida had no breadth and were profoundly vertically challenged. The first hints of a change trying to get together were over South Florida after sunset where a few showers came ashore at Palm Beach County.
One shot of low level moisture eked by shortly after sunrise, with some better looking clouds than anything to occur yesterday. They are since gone, but the fact that these moved over the coastal area was just a harbinger of things to come. By later this afternoon it's safe to introduce onshore moving rain showers across South Central Florida, and maybe as far north as Canaveral to Sarasota by sunset. Just showers, no thunder.
TOMORROW: Shower chances (and aptly, coverage) increases as moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere works in from the Atlantic and up from South Florida. South Florida might hear thunder, but not central.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: More moisture, hence more chances of showers. Don't get me wrong, it's not going to be a 'rainy day' or anything, just better chances of receiving a shower pretty much anywhere south of Daytona Beach - Crystal River (on the west coast of Florida). We might be able to introduce the chance of thunderstorms as well, especially by later Thursday afternoon for inland portions, but more so on Friday.
THE WEEKEND/TROPICS: This period will be interesting to see what occurs in the Caribbean, especially off the NE coast of Nicaragua. The GFS and European model have come to a mutual agreement of storm development down there, which translates north ahead of the aforementioned upper level trough developing over the intermountain region mentioned earlier. By Sunday into the beginning of next week a plethora of weather variabilities and possibilities exists incumbent upon what occurs as the mid-upper level trough translates toward the Mississippi River Valley and attempts to ambiguously 'coalesce' with the disturbance near Nicaragua which will have been drifting north into the open Caribbean in the meantime.
As whatever is trying to go on down there, the point is that at least Florida won't be dry any more. We will need to look more into increasing chances of flat out thunderstorms pretty much anywhere over South/Central Florida as we head toward the weekend and into next week in the meantime.
Perhaps nothing much will happen way down near the Caribbean, but it's becoming more and more apparent per models and climatologically that these changes are not out of order. We may be hearing more and more by the weekend of a tropical threat becoming apparent to the Gulf Coast states (including Florida) the first of October. Remember though, these developments of which we speak have yet to even develop. We're still at the hypothetical stage.

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