Images first show is the current temperature layout; second image early next week. Say hi to "Santa Breath".Synopsis: The combination of Low pressure near Nova Scotia and High pressure over the central Plains is shaking hands in agreement, with a nod at the Deep South with evil intent. Cold air has been enabled, as a result of their agreement, to engage in full on assault to the sandal clad shorts wearers of Florida, sending them burrowing deep in to the quilts.
TODAY: Cold air advection continues is about all their is to say. As expect, the surface winds last night into early this morning never completely decoupled, and as a result mixing of the lower boundary layer level has precluded the temperature from dropping even further than what it has already, as if it weren't bad enough. I think, in general, temperatures are not as cold as was being considered by the NWS on the broad scale, but on our local scale I think they are colder than what was expect. However, after many years of experience forecasting for this area, it has been my observation that the immediate A1A corridor does not have its coldest mornings when radiational cooler drainage flow air is at its peak performance. This air tends to stay limited to the spine of the state, sparing the coastal areas. On the other hand, when the wind is up...cold air has the power hand to spread it's wealth uniformly over the state which is certainly the case this morning and as can be seen by the included surface depiction of 8am EST.
Cold air will continue pro bonum today free of charge, not sure it's for the public good though (who hired these guys anyway?)...with no legal restraint. Today will be the coldest overall day yet, with a high in the lower end mid 50s range, which will only be during the peak heating hours of 1:00 - 2:30pm. For the most part we'll be in the low 50s today. These temperatures won't have far to fall tonight.
TONIGHT: Snuggie time. But we'll need to wear 3 at once. No more having to decide which of your favorite to wear, heck...wear'm all! Believe the atmosphere will decouple tonight leaving the residual layer of elevated wind aloft with near calm winds at the surface. Cold air advection will abate, but it will already be in place as the coldest of air barely overhead can settle to the surface and ooze south along the state's geographical features of nicks and crannies, filling in the little cracks and crevices of the local low lying areas. Those areas most prone to getting cold in events past, will feel the brunt tonight of this episode. Along the coast though, without the chill of wind in your face, it probably won't feel nearly as bad as it does this morning come sunrise Wednesday, and it probably won't be any colder either since the surrounding warmer waters will have a debilitating effect on the local enviroment.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY: Gradual warming, although using the word 'warming' is a bit of a misnomer, considering the temperature will still be well below what is considered to be average for this time of year. High back toward the 60s, especially Thursday under mostly clear skies. Morning lows Thursday still to freezing in North Central portions, with wide spread mid-upper 30s well inland...but into the 40s along the coasts.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Warming in earnest ensues, but pretty much just enough to help thaw out a bit before the next onslaught late Sunday into Monday. (see included image). Could see some rain or even thunderstorms by the first 1/2 of Sunday as the system gathers steam in the Deep South and swoops the cold front from 'frozen hell' through during the day. And after that...
Should the above forecast hold true (as shown in that image) it will be even colder WITH wind as well, then the past 2 days have been...early next week! Make it stop!!
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