"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Two Tales Of Winter Next 5 Days - James Bay Storm Machine in High Gear

Image: The 1km relative humidity this morning, shows just what we mean in addressing the "spine"of the state. Direct northerly, dry wind component right down midway. It is, in fact, dry to the spinal bone.

TODAY: Crisp morning with light winds is giving way to a cool afternoon with clear skies, other than some interesting contrails all over the place at 11am. Low pressure system is developing in the Central Gulf of Mexico, while another is trying to take shape near the N. Bahamas. The Gulf Low will move east, then more southerly with time as it approaches the Florida Peninsula overnight and then moves generally toward Western Cuba on Thursday. Bahama low lingers with little to no intensification in the short term.

Mostly sunny today, with an increase in some high clouds by late afternoon and into the early evening. Temperatures running well below seasonable norms once again today.

TONIGHT: Clouds on the increase mean an end to radiational cooling in the morning this day, and if anything, radiational warming (if there is such a thing) during the peak coolest hours of pre-day break Thursday, as the Gulf low approaches the Florida straits. Overnight lows probably a good 5 degrees warmer tonight, if not more so.

THURSDAY: The atmosphere is very dry right now as notable by the image included in today's 'dry to the spinal bone' image post. This air will be slow to modify, and as such, the precipitation shield portrayed by the NAM over the South 1/2 of Florida to be in place by daybreak is probably over done and will manifest only as low, overrunning warm air, cloud coverage initially. By late morning, energy at the low and upper levels associated with this system will gather with that of the system over the Bahamas. The result will be a backwash in the incumbent circulation from the NE along the coast from Daytona south to Vero Beach.

As such, cloudy conditions are expected for the day's entirety Thursday for most if not all but the Northern 1/3 of the state. The greatest chance of overrunning warmer air above the cold platter at the surface generating stratiform rain will be along the intercoastal. This is somewhat a hard pill to swallow, in that such an event is pretty darned unusual. So it is with bated breath I close my eyes and swallow the pill, hoping it goes down all the way without getting stuck. Because...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: If indeed the NAM (with the GFS coming into agreement) verifies, it will be the US1-A1A corridor from the Cape south to West Palm and maybe even Ft Lauderdale that could get wrapped up in isentropic backwash. In other words, lots of low clouds and rain. The greatest chance of such to manifest will be along the Brevard county intercoastal to Vero Beach. At best, it will just be cloudiness with no thermal heating to serve the soul which could put a bust on the high temperature outlook for this area. Folks further to the west might very well be carrying on their daily activities with no reserve and in complete ignorance to the conditions befalling their coastal cohorts just an hour drive away.

Seen it happen before. You leave Orlando under partly cloudy skies, only to cross I-95 heading toward the beach with a big cloud shield facing you dead ahead...which turns to light rain upon crossing the Indian and Banana Rivers. You get to A1A and it's an entirely different world from the one you left behind just an hour ago. Say it isn't so!

So to cut to the chase, best chances of rain, should there be any, will be from noon-dark along and east of US1 from Titusville to Vero, and over extreme S. Florida and the keys in association with the Gulf low. On a more positive note, this could all remain just offshore so we'll have to play it by ear.

FRIDAY: Warmer temperatures in the afternoon. For the most part, many areas will be in the clear. Most specifically N. Central Florida and down the west 1/2 of the state. But again, the Cape area comes into tricky territory. Exactly how quickly the entire conglomerate east of the state moves away remains up in the air. If it is to continue to rain anywhere it will be the A1A corridor...and at worst case, the whole way into Saturday. UGH. Then again, maybe not. I say it like it is, which is why I don't get paid for it. But for the most part, I think the east will be okay and in actuality could end up being a decent day overall. In other words, this is a 'crossing my fingers and hoping for the best' forecast.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Much warmer with a high in the low 70s. Finally. In the meantime, the writing is on the wall now...considering the model consistency during the past 48 hours. As feared, the worst of the cold has yet to come, and when it arrives it will be WITH A VENGEANCE!

Good rain chances Sunday as moisture and upper level energy all come in perfect syncopation in the form of a band of rain (thunderstorms so far do not seem to be the operative term yet)...but in whatever form it develops, it won't be here to stay too long. That's good I suppose, even if we are in a severe drought. Who wants a cool and very windy rain anyway making everything all nasty? Expecting some pretty sharp clearing, but not for a good reason.

MOAN-DAY: For with the clearing by sunrise will come the Blast from Arctic Hell. Preliminary MOS data paints a low temperature for Orlando Tuesday morning of 26F with PAFB at 35F! That second one is debatable in my mind...heck, I'm shooting for freakin' 29F, with wind too. Cold all day Monday...and More cold with a last hurray. Things will modify pretty quickly for mid week before the next storm system takes shape around the James Bay storm machine which is partly responsible for the misery that everyone from Florida to Maine is contending with into next week. Could be worse though...snow is not in the equation here which complexes the forecast challenged 10 fold.

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