"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Whirligig Antics Wrack Ideas of Iconic Irene (In Short Term Models)

Sunrise Reveals. Note the lack of a well defined eye. There was an eyewall replacement
early this morning.  Irene needs Visine!
***For local information pertinent to your area of interest please refer to the services of the National Weather Service. For individuals living south of Fort Pierce that would be the office out of Miami. From Ft. Pierce (St. Lucie County and north through Volusia)..that is the office located in Melbourne. North of Volusia County (Flagler)..visit the website for the office in Jacksonville, Florida. All information contained herein is both speculative combined with factual. Approach with care****

I suppose it goes without saying that all in the know are interested in what Irene is up to...for the latest on a timely basis refer to the above. If out and about, and one is available, take along a NOAA weather radio or the equivalent.

OVERNIGHT: Irene was a little irresponsible overnight. The storm underwent an eye-wall replacement cycle..A bit like a ripple running up and out through the eye-wall. During that time of steady state equilibrium the storm wobble a bit to the the west.  In response, two models and too a smaller degree a third, happened to be updating. The result in those models was an entirely new track for the storm. They read into this as weakening above all else ...and thus.. altered Irene's future track. To some that ended up close to the Florida east coast as a tropical storm.  But the official forecast holds firm from the Hurricane Center, albeit just a bit to the west because of the wobble. But like was mentioned yesterday, every mile counts. More in a moment.

TODAY: Moisture convergence is piling up along the Florida East Coast as the up tick in surface winds occurs because of the sunrise concurrent with the closer proximity of Irene 's outer circulation.  In turn, it is POSSIBLE that rains could really pick up...all along the Florida East Coast between 9AM through 11AM. From south to north. The northern most areas  are most questionable though.

Here is what I'm seeing, but the proof is not yet in the pudding from what current radar is showing other than for South far:

It is hard to say for sure if rains will develop this rapidly, but all short term models seem to be picking up on it. The mid-and long rang models do not have rains picking up to much this magnitude. Nor does the official forecast...other than with minor wrarning. Face it, we have a tropical storm around now. Point is...if the rains move in pretty quickly they could be here to stay for much of the day...or a good part of the late morning through early afternoon, considering Irene is closing in a wee bit.

Otherwise, rains should still develop up and down the coast prior to noon..most everywhere. They may also reach further to the west, especially over South Florida. It appears from the actual state of the atmosphere in the image above that rains will reach into the spine of the state...with backups arriving off the coast under the fresh ENE winds and moderately unstable atmosphere off shore.

IRENE THROUGH FRIDAY: Emphasis on the opening 'quoted' paragraph prevails.  There was one interesting thing I noticed with the GFS model. That model is one of the main squeezes for the future track of Irene.  I do not know if it was run in time for the replacement...but I do not believe so. But it ..and that model alone so putting the track just a hairline fracture closer to Florida.  Additionally, the latest RUC 18hour run indicates yet another eye wall replacement to occur later today into tonight while Irene is still SE-ESE of Cape Canaveral. This brings again the track a bit closer..than the forecast track for that time frame By overnight the GFS has Irene reaching 'Peak Performance" in terms of Strength (through Saturday). Therefore, as it strengthens even more..its wind field of tropical storm force winds could as well. Therefore, it shows near steady tropical storm force winds approaching 40mph along the Florida East coast overnight tonight into Sunrise Friday. I say this only to air on the side of caution. There is nothign official being transmitted to that degree.

I also noticed that the same model which picked up the wobble creating another one. The net result looks like this at the end of that model run:

FICTIONAL!! This shows a tropical storm near the Coast. This was run though, right as Irene was just completing the eye-wall replacement. A similar scenario was shown as it began the cycle...But, since the GFS of 2AM seems to indicate slighting stronger is something to toy with. ALL IN ALL..the forecast track holds firm in the long range with some changes that have no impact on Florida...but do for folks from the Carolinas and North. For the second time they are shifting the track at some point to the west and closer to if not on land near Maryland or New York.

TONIGHT: Just in case, anyone near the beach or even toward US1 might want to secure loose objects while the day is young. Any unexpected winds in a squally rain shower could send something 'moving' that otherwise would not be so desired.

OVERALL: The local affects other than those on the ocean are difficult today due to the eye wall replacements. Common sense tells me...they won't change a thing for us here...with that..the post of yesterday holds firm..other than these brain teaser models that are out there... There is an old saying..and I laugh in spite of myself:  "He who lives by the models, dies by the models". I'd like to live another see another storm. And what the heck....

There is another Depression just determined to have been born well out in the Atlantic west of Africa.

FRIDAY: Rains and winds should end ..whenever they end. So far, could be as soon as noon time..or as late as sunset. It all depends on how the beast breaths. Any exhale in our direction can make a difference . Winds will be from the NNW and still gusty if all goes as the waves will grow smaller with every set of waves that rolls in. Get'm while they're hot! The storm will pull away as will the waves subside, especially with stronger offshore winds blowing the remaining after-shock ripples trickling toward the east coast in the other direction.

SATURDAY/MONDAY: As the Storm works up the east coast of the U.S. winds will become WSW-W with no sea breeze. Record high temperatures, especially near the east coast because that area is accustomed to sea breezes in August as a rule...are possible. 

Rain chances are questionable. Logic says 'no rain' because there is no trigger and no sea breeze. Models say, "Yeah, but there is a lagging trough Irene left behind..and I want there to be moisture convergence along it to make showers during the mid morning to late afternoon moving across the state wherever I have that boundary". 

The trend has been drying best bet is the next runs will show even more drying and no rain. Just have to see, and still a few days away to watch this factor.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Looks like a return to a more normal cycle, with storms favoring the interior and toward the east coast late in the day. all gets so messed up. Irene blew a few microchips or overloaded the model's hard drives and circuit boards with "too much information"...let's call it 'Convective Feedback".  

I am getting the impression that we are entering a blend of the end of thunderstorm season and more of a solely tropical regime as we get into the first week of September..and might add..the peak of Hurricane Season. Watching the Gulf..and anywhere near either coast of Florida for starters for future developments. As well as, what comes down the African Turnpike , a.k.a  "The 10th Degree of North Latitude".

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