TODAY: Storms over the Gulf of Mexico, as seen in the water vapor image above. Increasing moisture could lead to another morning of low clouds/fog Tuesday once again with a shallow inversion present ..this would burn off in locations where fog exists and blows east through mid-morning. Otherwise, sea breezes at play on Tuesday could result in inland showers and perhaps thunder to be determined in the next 24 hours. So far, it appears showers Tuesday, and maybe Thunder Wednesday and/or Thursday.
FROM THERE we progress to Friday under the supposition that the upper level low shown above will progress first toward the ENE then E then drop south as was the case with the previous two systems. The last one took quite a drop though from the upper Midwest (Illinois) ..something in between the two paths could eventually evolve, but it is simply too early in the game plan to be definitive. Otherwise, Friday and Thursday late appear to be good days for rain chances (more so Friday)..and one of those days could have strong storms contingent upon outlying factors that are TBD.
SATURDAY: Frontal boundary to approach 'around this day time phase' either way, either track of low. And as such, the surface front glides through followed by the supporting mid-level trough within 24 hours. This leads to a surge of onshore winds and shallow enough moisture to bring in clouds and perhaps light rain as well.
SUNDAY: (EASTER) - Preliminary: GFS has been consistent the past 4 runs to bring in stronger onshore winds overnight Saturday night or Sunday, with the latest run as soon as late day Saturday. Easter Sunday, then, could result in cloudy skies and winds from the ENE-E at 20-30mph. Not a good day for Beach Side Services. To be monitored for continuity and subsequent updates here.
|Late today, 700mb analysis shows mid level High Pressure approaching Florida. and moving eastward with time as the low to the west moves east as well.|