"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Rain Chance Thursday/Friday: Much Improved For Easter

Clustered line of Showers/Thunder is pressing east and south across the Northern Gulf early this Wednesday afternoon. It appears most if not all of this activity will wane out after it gets beyond the Loop current, and thus holds no threat to the Peninsula. Otherwise, Showers and some thunder (isolated ) toward I-10, and maybe a quick shower along the SE Coast of the state much later today. Temperatures aloft are quite cold, but suspect that even though those could help in storm growth we first have to get one to generate. Moisture is rather sparse though aloft, and 850mb temps would take quite a bit of upward forcing for much to manifest, so isolated at best for a shower or the far chance of thunder seems to be a precautionary measure more than anything else. This area IS worth watching though, just in case.
TODAY: Warm interior to east side today with highs in the low 90Fs all interior areas and near the mark at the beaches as well by 3pm. A sea breeze does not look very likely, but if it does manifest, it will remain pegged east of I95, and prevent highs from reaching the 90F mark where it reaches. Some possible increase in higher clouds overnight after dark as a result of remnant clouds from activity over the Gulf. Otherwise, today's rain chances are noted in the above image.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Much better 'chance' of rain and thunderstorms from north to south late morning through sunset Thursday, and even earlier on Friday. Although guidance shows temperatures to be very cold and winds aloft increasing through Friday as well with instability in place, there is a problem in regard for much beyond general to isolated coverage or rain and/or thunder will actually exist. That being, the potential for high level clouds to shut off the storm producing atmospheric mechanisms, in the absence of only pockets of deeper moisture. Additionally, most of the precipitable water on forecast soundings is showing up above or near 10.000 ft as opposed to low levels, thus negating the potential for low level moisture convergence in the absence of sea breeze boundaries.  

The misnomer for both Thursday and early Friday will be if there is an ABSENCE of high clouds to start the days or heading into the early afternoon hours. There is a chance of strong to severe storms most anywhere over the state both days contingent upon at least the high cloud coverage scenario, the less amount of high clouds, the better chance of storms. ..coupled with the lack of any well defined (if any) sea breeze boundaries and fast steering currents from west to east. It may be that thunder will be restricted to off the east coast and just off or near the west coast on Friday and/or Thursday.

This scenario has been unfolding in the mid range models in various ways since Sunday, so we'll need to be monitoring both days for strong storm potential.

Forecast First Shot for Friday afternoon. Since previous post, model run continuity within and between models shows the front to pass through the state at least 12 hours sooner the previously surmised with a boundary being located close to that shown above around 2pm FRIDAY (the image is mis-labelled) 
SATURDAY: Frontal boundary to press rapidly down the state Friday, followed by a period of stronger NE-ENE wind later Saturday afternoon and evening. Saturday does not look like the best kind of day for beach goers, with low level clouds possible although not entire cloudy by any means and possible light showers especially along the SE Coast. The atmosphere becomes quite dry above 7000 ft or so and dries through Sunday beyond Saturday evening. The most windy conditions appears will Friday afternoon through late afternoon Saturday.

EASTER SUNDAY: LOOKING BETTER than previous forecast model runs.

Continued ENE winds around 12-18mph with a few low clouds and morning lows close to 65F at the beaches and cooler inland with highs in the mid-upper 79Fs., with winds gradually dying on out further into Monday and eventually becoming more WSW by Tuesday as the next boundary (show above ) approaches. So far, no rain expected with that boundary due to the nature of this particular synoptic scale set up not allowing atmospheric moisture to recover to high enough levels to formulate rain making type clouds. A small cooling trend appears to be in the offing from Saturday onward. most notable inland Sunday/Monday mornings and toward the west side of the state.

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