"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Showers and Thunder Possible Again , Some Strong Most Likely South Florida

Post today has a big caveat namely for Central Florida. See verbiage in 'red'.
TODAY: Ample moisture is already in place today Central and South Florida. The issue with Central in regard to storms today is an outflow boundary seen on satellite animation which if 'post boundary conditions' hold to form, might stabilize the atmosphere too much for much activity to get going across Central Florida today. Not so much the case for South Florida though, at least not yet. The NAM shows very little activity today whereas the RAP and GFS are consistently indicating some rain. Suspect this might be convective feedback though. It appears the NAM might not have initialized well though on the other hand, which would make sense if the former is true.

Again though, the outflow boundary is a big question mark. On the other hand, looks like there will be good clearing for most areas prior to noon time allowing for quick heating with little chance of storms out over the Gulf stream causing high clouds to stream overhead as was the case yesterday. 

All things aside, with the worst rain-case scenario:

Chances of locally heavy rainfall and some minor street flooding, mainly inland and especially over areas that received a good dose yesterday (where over 2" was not all that uncommon). A few severe warnings were issued yesterday but actual severe was brief and rare. Temperatures aloft today though are equally as cold and wind shear per the SPC Mesoanalysis page is actually greater today, although looking around outside from East Central at this time it looks like a dreary day is in the making and that is about that. But, as can be seen in the image above, not all folks are cloudy.  Again, the bigger downplayer for a rain maker might be the outflow boundary seen in satellite animation. Will the lower levels recover in time? Chances are, it's still pretty early in the day, so it should be able to. Activity might get going just a bit later than previously expected but either way would expect that by 2-3pm showers and some thunder could get popping over at least the west 1/2 of the state and South Florida, earlier South Florida.

WEDNESDAY: Wednesday might be more cloudy than rain due to an expected MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) that might prop itself upstream well out in the Gulf sending high clouds this way. If not, that changes everything. We'll have to see on that one.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: Chex Mixed Bag  to be determined. The GFS and to a smaller degree NAM suggestion strong onshore flow from a developing occluded system to the NW with a trough extending out and down across Florida. Pressure gradient winds of 20-G32mph, and rain rain rain from Brevard 'mainly' and south for Friday into Saturday primarily  but be advised,  guidance varies from model to model and from  run to run considerably. All guidance is indicating the Omega Block to set up, but the position of the low pressure system on the east side will  the prime determinant. It's simply too soon to know almost until it happens.

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