"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Chance of Strong/Brief Severe Storms South Florida and other Anomalies Through Sunday

3AM Infrared Enhanced Satellite Imagery shows an MCS likely powered by an MCV approaching the SW Florida Coast. Later in the post we'll see how things have changed in the past nearly 12 hours since this image was captured
 TODAY: Complex forecast for not only today but the next several days as an Omega Block is in the process of forming between a low now near Louisiana and another off the California Coast at the mid-upper levels. The low near Louisiana is expected to eventually lift into Arkansas with a mid-level warm front like trough extending SE across Florida (as referred to several posts ago) during the next few days. The surface reflection is now coming to fruition into the Gulf from the former via a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (vorticity complex) viz System that is slowly encroaching on the west coast. Much dilemma involved concerning cloud coverage and weak low level convergence for storm initiation in an otherwise moderately unstable environment that is spreading north to Dead Central. Effective Bulk Shear in the mid-upper levels might be enough to provide the lift necessary to get storms going coupled along cold air aloft and convergence from a rather weak sea breeze boundaries despite the cloud coverage combined over spreading all areas.  Thus, a chance of rain showers, some thunder, and some stronger thunder is possible over mainly South florida although as we head toward 2-3pm of peak heating and the aftereffects much can change, although the more northern extent for the most part should remain south of I-4 in regard to thunder other than perhaps an isolated event.

This shows best chances for Stronger Storms in red, thunder in orange, and rain showers (some heavy briefly) in the Green Bounds. Other isolated stronger storms are always possible just about anywhere though with in the thunder zone particularly up toward Polk County and perhaps even western Osceola County (for starters).
.Satellite Image shows the system later in the morning as it approaches Florida
This is the same view of the above image on radar.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: Day by day forecasts will be the rule. In general terms, some rainfall totals are showing up from 1 1/2 - 5" mainly along the east coast south of I-4, and more specifically from the Cape and South with some outliers as far north as St Augustine getting into the mix. Exactly where heaviest totals will occur varies from model to model run, but the Cape area has shown up consistently until the latest morning GFS run to have the highest totals. Winds could increase along the east coast from Brevard County and north Mainly, and then become more ESE heading into later in the weakened. Another player to watch will be training rain storms and thunder ejecting off the Bahamas toward West Palm to Ft. Pierce come the weekend. Waterspouts might become a concern as well.  

The GFS is showing Saturday and Sunday to be particularly interesting over the east half of the state as drying moves in from the west with perhaps one more day of it on Monday afternoon. On the other hand, the last Euro Model continues the effects through Tuesday.

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