|Moon over Canaveral|
TODAY: Frontal boundary near the Florida - GA border to wiggle south in the next 24 hours into Central to South Central if not South Florida depending on which model one prefers. The GFS says all the way, the latest NAM just about says it breaks up too much to almost be deemed worthy of notice. The new GFS is not out yet .
Will side with consistency of the GFS for now from the past 2 days. If the NAM verifies, this entire post goes out the window though in favor for better storm chances Central post Wednesday and Thursday (NAM) which is directly in opposition with the Global Forecast System (GFS) regurgitation.
Otherwise, cloud cover will be a big player today in regard to what happens where. High clouds across much of the North could impede significantly afternoon activities as a result of early day thunder along the NW Coast north of Cedar Key spreading out the high clouds as will be seen in the image to follow (below).
Conditions are not favorable at time for storms across West Central as most models are depicting and in agreement with. As a result for Central and North Central, the better storm chances will be at least over the East 1/2 of the state if only the eastern 1/3. Across the north, mainly north of I-4, it looks like light to moderate rains with embedded thunder unless the clouds clear out.
Further South, Southwest Florida from near Okeechobee County (south parts) toward Venice/Ft. Myers in from the coast could see stronger but more isolated activities as evidenced by the Microburst Downburst Potential (MDPI) Index from the Mesoscale analysis page which supposed is drawing it's information from the Miami and Tampa Soundings and extrapolating those values across that region. Also perhaps inland of th coast toward it for Martin, St Lucie, and maybe Indian River toward Vero Beach could see a good storm nearby.
Again, cloud cover and inland extent of sea breezes combined with outflow boundaries which manifest as a result of early day activity will determine what happens where and is generally unpredictable down to any exact location.
Steering toward the East to East South East if not Southeast (which means storm coming from the NW to NNW) except along' apparent' storm motions which result from propagation along pre-existent boundaries (mostly true for South Florida in that regard).
BEYOND: Tomorrow per the GFS the front will slide into South Central by early morning at least and progress further toward the Southern Tip by night fall if not sooner. The upper level trough might be to the east of Central and North with weak high pressure to follow and thus descending air motions suppressing convectively rising air currents (convection) would limit to totally prohibit thunderstorm activities; and cloud cover 'might' be an issue as well. Thus sky conditions on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are just a bit uncertain.
On the other hand, the new NAM says 'Not so"...for now, I think that is a new development in the model run so will discard in favor of GFS consistency across the past few days as noted earlier in the post.
TEMPERATURES - not 'much' change in afternoon highs though they could come to be closer to the mid 80Fs if not some lower 80Fs at peak hearing esp. near the coast, with morning being the bigger player: in the lower to mid 70Fs statewide which would be mostly noticeable along the east coast beach areas specifically since inland areas have already been experiencing cooler mornings all along away from the warmer ocean waters.
FUTURE RAIN CHANCES UNCERTAIN : It's hard to tell at this point with all the future uncertainties due to model disparities if on say Thursday or Friday we will see rain/and or thunder in areas south of I-4, cloud cover, or none of the above. But suspect thunder is the least likely of all.
FALL WEATHER TO COME?: GFS hints at a more 'fallish feel' to the air sometime around the 18th - 21st, which is a fairly consistent climatological possibility. However, it will be minor. The bigger aspect to the situation is the more noticeable lack of summer activity as opposed to it truly feeling and looking like fall. Less summery equates to fall in that case.