Weak Low Traverses South Florida Today - Disrupts Forecastablility

"Thursday Afternoon Over the Atlantic of Brevard County"

TODAY: A weak surface low from the Bahamas is at time traversing South Florida and is clearly evident on visible satellite animations to be targeting and area just north of Port Charlotte on the Southwest Coast in several hours. There is no rain associated with the low itself at this time, but instead most precipitation is associated with an inverted trough rotating around the top side of the low. Another convergent band 'might' manifest later today to move in along Indian River to maybe parts of Brevard County in the mid-late afternoon hours, though most forecast packages from surrounding offices are not very convincing on exactly what might evolve. There is another area off the Southeast Coas that could move in on Broward , Dade, and Palm Beach Counties though in several hours if it holds together. Otherwise, today is quite a bit out of the norm in regard to any normal 'synoptic' scale features (large scale) due to this 'disruption'.

RED CIRCLE highlight the area of lower pressure as noted
by the swirling pattern within.
Yellow area is pointing in the general direction of motion of this feature
Orange shows where Thunder could be most likely, if at all, though
an occasional thunder is always possible as far north as
Southern Volusia not including
perhaps the panhandle region. 

 

CLOSER VIEW of THE AOI - AREA OF INTEREST

"Page Break Image for Blog - That's a Promise"

BEYOND: More chances of showers overnight and mostly pre-dawn to early afternoon hours east side working inland to the west coast late day, though never is a shower entirely impossible most anywhere at any given time. The least likely though is inland over night, and this stands through the weekend into Monday.

TUESDAY: A series of cold fronts (2) will work as far as the Deep South toward the Panhandle by Tuesday if not into Central Florida, but in that, a very weakened state. So far the implication has been anywhere from remaining stationary over Central Florida to clearing the whole way through with stronger onshore Easterly flow to follow, much like it  would be for  early fall event (say around the first day of Fall, Sept 21st) would be. But again, that's ahead of where Tuesday will be at.

 Increasing chances of thunder around the I-4 and inland to the west and perhaps south Florida but East Central direct might remain 'in the dry'. Pleanty of more time to ascertain.

WEDNESDAY: SW Flow aloft as the Atlantic Ridge axis is pressed south by a secondary deepening of the Large Mother  Low Pressure Area around the Great lakes region. With that, storms could be directed toward the east coast for anywhere from 1-4 days depending on what happens with the front. It's too far out in time to know with any certainty. Sea breeze convergence activity alone is going to become harder and  harder to come by now that fall approaches and the day's are getting shorter to the point that even one minute might make or break it.

BEYOND: Guidance has removed any tropical treat (threat) from the Atlantic  (one letter can make a world of difference) but rather the notion is to watch the Southern Gulf toward the far western Caribbean for a moisture surge at least, to a full blown Tropically named Entity to approach the Panhandle region. That has been the trend so far since last blog post and several model runs, but is easily changeable in all regards considering this does not truly begin to manifest per guidance well into next week (late). But if so, some much wetter weather could be in store for the entire state at various times from Tuesday on for the following week, first regard to the potentially decaying cold front, and secondly to what might come out of the Tropical Caribbean.