|GROUND HOG DAY MORNING|
THURSDAY. Guidance continues to show about the same as the previous runs with a major exception in the GFS. No closed low other than a very weak one is now being shown to cross North Central to Central Florida with no intensification just off NE Florida. That is, just a weak 'circulation' crosses the state from sunrise through late morning. Thus, the chance of Severe Weather goes down (from the previous blog post) as well as the chance of strong 'gale' like winds post frontal passage. Seems a warm front might make it as far north as I-4 but south of Daytona on the east side. The heaviest rainfall or largest totals might be north of the boundary in the colder air, with the better chance of thunder with rotation aloft only for a very brief window of opportunity between 5AM to around 10-11 AM (east coast) depending on timing.
The two models noted, the NAM and the GFS, are a bit different in timing with the NAM faster which would mean any chance of a stronger storm (or any storm for that matter) would be over before 9AM in the morning, the GFS hangs on to about 10AM. Main reason for thunder would be bulk shear and 03KM helicity values in the presence of cold air aloft along the warm front, but surface based instability is close to non-existent, so chances are this will end up being a rain event of short duration. Regardless, rain on Thursday appears to be a near certainty.
|Only a General Depiction and no all inclusive for the remote chance of thunder, maybe tiny hail if so? Warm front across Central will be the main player suspect though|
BEYOND: Flow swings around to NE-E fairly quickly going into Friday and over the weekend but temperatures might remain a bit blow average though morning lows won't be anything other than something similar to this morning north in degrees and locations where it gets the most cold. Breezy though for a day or two , so Friday will be a bit of a biter with breezy conditions very cool, and possibly a lower cloud deck as well with a few spritzes though suspect that chance might go by the way side.
Meaning, east coast from the Cape south again will be the least vulnerable to the coldest air; lows mainly ranging through the 40Fs to lower 50Fs with some upper 30Fs possible Ocala and North (in general).
GREATER BEYOND: GFS hints in a few runs now at a big cold air intrusion out past Valentines Day, watching that one. The coldest one yet.