"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Rain Likely- ISO STORM Possible Early Thursday

EARLY MORNING RADAR shows rain but most is not reaching the ground over Central
But toward the West Coast, some might reach down though further inland north of I4
TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy (esp. North Half of state) today and as a result continued a bit 'cool' with light southeasterly wind. Rain still appears to be forthcoming with certainty along and north of I-4 going into tonight and through early THursday morning.

THURSDAY: Latest GFS and NAM continue to show respectable 0-3KM helicity along a sinking warm frontal like boundary. Thing to watch for will be colder air from the North as a result of heavier rainfall acting as an impetus for localize increase in low level shear as it forces the boundary south to a line near Cape Canaveral to Orlando, but overall the threat of severe weather appears to be close to NIL as directional shear will be exiting east of the state prior to the greatest increases in vertical velocities throughout the column coincident with directional shear. Regardless, vertical velocities up to 700mb are shown consistently to be the greatest near I-4 south to within the purple bounds shown in the image above between 5AM - 8AM time frame.

Should ingredients that remain come together just right some strong winds might be experienced on a very very localized basis with some heavier but brief rainfall.  There is still several more model runs to go with each of them though, and things can change. This post is based on the 06z runs which are not always the best indicators. The 00z NAM showed a better chance of a stronger storm or two within the same bounds as shown in the image above (to keep in mind). 

The front is expected to be on a line near a MLB to Sarasota line around 1pm Thursday, with continued cloudy skies and perhaps some light rain patches up until that time along and south of the boundary. Cold air advection ensues immediately Post FroPa (frontal passage) with temperatures remaining in the lower - mid 60Fs most of central with a fall into the mid-upper 50Fs going into the afternoon as the front presses south on the heels of a NNW at 15-20mph.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Again, onshore flow begins overnight Friday night if not a bit sooner from the NNE with winds around 20mph. This will prevent the east coast from Canaveral south from realizing the much colder temperatures that will be experienced inland and north of Orlando (thought even those  won't be terribly chilly or unusual for this season).    

BEYOND: Temperatures to remain a bit below normal over the weekend with the next front on tap in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. This boundary is not expected to be nearly as active as the attendant surface low will be well north of the state, but colder air is expected behind it than the upcoming front.

In the longer range there still poses a chance of a re-enforcing boundary to arrive mid-February but just exactly how cold it will get  with that one , IF SO, is too far out in time to make a realistic determination.

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