"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, March 28, 2016

Chance of an Isolated Strong Storm East South Central

TODAY: No doubt a tricky forecast today with

A. A decaying frontal boundary across Central Florida very close to the Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay line which might work a bit further south then lose much of its identity; and

B. Cloud cover in vicinity of boundary to offset what could be a more active day.


Looks like though winds just off the deck and steering currents are from at a general west to east at  18 - 25 mph the decaying boundary will produce the impetus to allow sea breezes to form due to a weakened surface pressure gradient flow,  but remain within about 10-20 miles of the east coast if not closer.  

Latest Short Term model runs including the NAM do show some clearing and storms to generate not long after and perhaps even during peak heating (around 1-2 pm) mainly along or near the 'what was' front. 

As usual, outflow boundaries (from any activity over 'direct Central') combined with sea breeze convergence might be where the real show will be further south, but with such brisk winds just above the deck it is near impossible to ascertain where subsequent activity might manifest in regard to proximity to the east coast. 

Might see some 'high rollers' very near the coast or even to form just off the coast (and move eastward) though anywhere from the Cape to as far south as Ft Pierce.

TUESDAY: Again, similar chances of rain-showers/storms might occur. NAM (not usually favored on this end at least) implies several small vort lobes to cross the state tomorrow afternoon, and haven't seen that the GFS shows this to be the case. Therefore, will not go into detail on Tuesday other than that there is a chance of  cloud cover (or at least plenty of it)..and showers and/or storms once again but under a different set of circumstances than today.

WEDNESDAY :  Onshore flow should resume well enough to preclude all but far western interior and west coast locations (somewhere) to have a rain chance. 

Next system approaches right around April Fool's Friday...with either storm chances being introduced anywhere between late Thursday or Friday in some fashion.  

Will not venture into this time territory yet , for even today and Tuesday is murky enough.  "Hints" that perhaps a better chance of severe type weather might emerge come later next week though has been indicated off and on the past two days by the GFS (Global Forecast System). but so far looks shaky.

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