"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Thunder (Isolated Strong Possible) Mainly Eastern Central Florida Today

Moon Set Early Good Friday Morning
TODAY: No surprises in blog forecast post this morning; as expected timing of system passing across Florida in this pernicious (in regard to a forecaster's reputation) pattern especially in regard to timing is problematic especially in regard to cloud cover induced by storms over the eastern Gulf and this morning is no different.

Although not exactly, so far this morning doesn't look a whole lot different from yesterday morning at the same time; as a result, the forecast for storm locations and strength is nearly identical to that of yesterday with only one caveat: The Timing.   Apart from necessary instability a trigger might move across mainly parts of North Florida (North of I-4) earlier in the Day today.

Forecast reasoning is based on cold air aloft, best instability from near I-4 and South (especially South Central) with that instability advected into and/or toward East Central Florida  combined with any boundaries that might emerge southward from the north. Chance once again of more than one storm 'session' especially if activity gets going by or before the 2-3pm time frame as was observed yesterday over East Central and the Eastern South Central toward northern parts of South Florida later yesterday.

Good Friday afternoon around 4pm in Cape Canaveral looking West

Yesterday there was two 'officially reported' severe storms per the winds  (both in East Central Florida) though strong winds were reported as well in many locations associated mainly with a storm cluster that moved from the Tampa area toward the East Coast. Some more heavy rainfall reports are filtering in as well to add to any tallies from the previous day.

EASTER SUNDAY:  Again, this day will be problematic so will run with persistence. Chances of early morning light rain North Florida (mainly panhandle) and potential that a shower could 'pop' even toward Central prior to 9AM. Better chance of activity with thunder would be after 2PM and mainly North and North Central Florida into eastern parts of Central.

MONDAY: One last gasp and storm chances though overnight GFS implies perhaps Tuesday as well due to mainly sea breeze convergence activity south of I-4 southward to south Florida and mainly inland .

After Monday (and / or Tuesday) things look quiet for a few days with a drier onshore easterly to eventually southeast flow making for warmer early east coast mornings but seasonal in the afternoon with highs in upper 70Fs east coast to some lower 80Fs further inland.

BETTER storm chance re-emerge toward Friday and the April 1st -2nd time period. No foolin' ! 

No comments: