"Thunderstorm Associated with Colin's Presence Early Monday Evening - Cape Canaveral"
TODAY: Not much change in line of thinking from yesterday's post. Colin is merging with a much larger synoptic scale upper level trough as it lifts off to the east and north this morning toward the Carolina Coasts. A trailing surface through mid level boundary holds fast in Colin's tracks being held in place and in part due to high pressure well to the east preventing it from moving much further south.
Though this boundary may move south for a time today into tomorrow an upper level trough moving more across the northern portions of the Midwest might cause the boundary to lift back north again.
For today, the impacts will be decreasing wind as Colin moves further away (from the WSW-SW) with continued chance of cloudiness and showers with perhaps even some 'thunder' as has been occurring more toward the west half of the state since well before sunrise.
Best chance of thunder appears in this set up will be the west half of the state becoming more like light rain toward the east coast. All this to occur mainly 'along to south of a line running from near OAK HILL on the east coast to BROOKSVILLE on the west coast (but not in entirety). Not so say that some 'true thunder like activity' might not occur most anywhere once daytime heating gets established - but for now history says 'watch the west half of state (Central portions)'.
WEDNESDAY: Similar set up is in the cards though perhaps a bit further south.
BEYOND to THURSDAY-FRIDAY: The GFS had picked up the upcoming days it appears yesterday and the NAM to some regards is coming into agreement in stages. A disturbance will emerge from south of the west tip of Cuba and lift north around the Atlantic Ridge and merge with what remains of the surface boundary. The RESPONSE to that disturbance will be to back the surface winds a bit to more from the south or even SSE for a brief time across parts of Central and South Florida. Thus, suspect a 'better chance of storms and rains for more areas' with better convergence along/near the remnant boundary might be in the cards sometime between overnight Wednesday into the day time Thursday/Thursday evening.
SATURDAY: Really to far out in time to expect model guidance to be accurate on smaller atmospheric perturbations, but again the GFS hints yet another mid-upper level disturbance will track slowly toward the state making for one last gasp atbetter rain chances. Timing , if this is to be so, is also at this point in question.
Either way, rain chances could be with much of Central through South Florida through Saturday for a variety of reasons, though 'strong' storms are not anticipated lightning activity might become an issue on Thursday and Saturday if guidance holds fast.
"Stormy Colin Skies Late Monday Afternoon"