"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, June 6, 2016

'PsyColin-ic' Tornado Threat Bears Watching

TODAY: Short blog post as all who would bother reading this blog are already more than likely well aware to varying degrees about Tropical Storm Colin as well as the Watches/Warnings currently in place regarding the Florida Peninsula and both Coasts.

For the latest info See the National Hurricane Center at this link:   NHC Graphics Link Click Here

Apart from the 'potentials' regarding Colin itself, (mostly to the immediate west coast north of Tampa Bay or near to it), a secondary 'tornado threat' might be able to emerge come late morning toward noon time west coast and spread east to the other coast by mid-afternoon through early evening.

For blog purposes highlighting  perhaps  'secondary area of interest (AOI)' being the East Coast. Guidance agrees the greatest surface based instability this afternoon will be over the Atlantic waters and close to the coast where there it will remain rain free and the atmosphere less contaminated by early rainfall.

 Greatest surface based Instability combined with mid level directional and speed shear might increase come the 1PM time frame through around sunset as Colin becomes a bit more organized in and expands in the mid -levels. 

**** All this 'assumes' , however, the track of Colin as currently forecast .

Conditions might quickly change come the 1-2PM time frame.
Suggest monitoring favorite local channels such as for Central Florida , WFTV-Ch 9 or Channel 13 and/or NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts just to check-in and see if indeed such conditions are beginning to manifest. 

TUESDAY: Though Colin will be already well on its  way from Florida by Tuesday morning, there is quite a current of high precipitable water values dragging along behind the system. Some guidance as of this morning implies the potential for stronger thunderstorms mainly across 'anywhere' Central Florida due to this moisture combined with a pseudo-surface boundary left behind the storm. The Storm Prediction Center has already bit and is monitoring most of the state with a 'marginal risk' of severe storms Tuesday as well. 

If nothing else changes they could occur most anytime after late morning meaning this would again not be the standard 'summer thunderstorm regime' type set up.

BEYOND: Moisture band will shift to 'mainly' South Central and South Florida comes Wednesday and Thursday. Shower/thunderstorm chances will thus decrease especially along and north of I-4.

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