"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, June 5, 2016

"Waiting" - Tropical Storm Watches Posted (West Coast)

TODAY: Increasing atmospheric moisture depths this afternoon from south to north. If at noon one thought it was muggy-- out there is more to come later today as precipitable water increases..and so to do the rain chances. Most activity might miss the IMMEDIATE beaches south of Volusia today until late but it could rain almost anywhere right along the sea breeze front as it works slowly inland. Steering is mostly from south to north today until later when it will become a bit more from the southwest. Appears best chances of thunder right on beaches might be from near the Space Center and north though some rumbles might be audible at the beaches themselves into all of Brevard by late afternoon though it is possible that only some light rain or increasing cloud cover will be about it. Most guidance implies activity will quickly dwindle by 
0- dark time as we transition into more of a 'pre-tropical storm' like mode.

MONDAY: Will not go into detail on Monday as all news stations will be relaying their versions of what is to come on Monday.

 Overall model guidance continues to fail in regard to consistencies between them though the GFS does at least remain somewhat consistent with what I anticipate will be a named STORM system to make landfall somewhere within the Florida Big Bend region.

Guidance does show tropical storm force winds (sustained) at 2000 AGL but not at the surface; however, though "Gusts' of Tropical storm force appear likely now along parts of the west coast if not even most anywhere else in heavier rain storms, sustained tropical storm force winds at the surface  might be a bit hard to come by. 

The system itself will encounter shearing upper level winds from the west and is itself already LOPSIDED, favoring the east side.

Image below shows where the 'center' of said upcoming 'named' system or Depression noted by the 'red circle' is located versus where the activity associated with it is located. 

Even the untrained eye can see below 
that the west side of 'the system' is devoid of activity.

The RED BOX above is where it is possible some kind of 'tornado watch' might be issued (worst case scenario, however) and the purple (worst case again) for where heaviest rains might fall combined with a tornado threat.

.... But will stress that is worst case. Some areas might see but a quarter of an inch of rain when all is said and done while other areas might see 3-4" (if not more). It's simply too soon to say; additionally, the true character of the yet to organize system might not truly reveal itself until sometime mid day Monday into late afternoon. 

Guidance showing simulated future radar changes almost hourly.  

Though instability will be lacking due to increasing cloud cover, if the system does remain a bit more toward the east much of Florida north of a Lake Okeechobee and especially north of a Sarasota to Vero Beach line could see a bigger tornado threat (though far SW Florida as well could be 'in the zone) due to strong and quickly veering winds in the lowest levels and higher 0-3KM helicity values spreading from SW Florida toward east Central or east 'north' Central during the day Monday into Monday evening.

BEYOND MONDAY : Tuesday might also see 'windy showers' and/or thunderstorms scattered in nature..maybe even earlier in the morning. For now it does appear there will be at least a chance of rain Central to South Florida on Tuesday but will wait on the details until after Monday is out of the way. 

For latest Guidance and info refer to the National Hurricane Center's website and local media outlets

National Hurricane Center

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