"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, January 1, 2018

: Sleet - Wintry Mix with Wind Possibly Northeast Florida by Wednesday

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NOW: Cold front as of 11:30AM is passing south down Central Florida followed by the anticipated and rather abrupt up tick of cooler NNW-N wind on its heals. The front is anticipated to proceed only slowly south through the day toward far South Florida.

The warmest temperature of the day might well have already been realized across most parts of Central Florida or is about to be in regions north of Lake Okeechobee in the next few hours as it drops south. 

Coldest temperatures during the day will be along the Beach Line (Central Florida) and north and just a fraction of a few miles away from the immediate coast line south of southern Volusia County.

Temperatures across the beaches of Brevard might hold near steady in the lower 60Fs the rest of the day but a short journey west will reveal cooler air to be at hand. Cloudy skies to prevail all day in the increasingly unagreeable conditions , at least if one was anticipating a sunshiny romp in the surf, as satellite imagery clearly reveals the sky conditions further down stream heading across the state.

TONIGHT: Sky conditions remain cloudy and temperatures somewhat level off, especially near the exact coast line south of the cape where the wind will have acquired a slight onshore component if not parallel to the coast . Not expecting a huge drop in temperature therefore along and east of US1 south of the area around Oak Hill in southern Volusia County unless one is further inland. Even yet still, cloud cover will aid to 'blanket' the low levels to prevent a greater drop in over night temperatures.

TUESDAY: Hold status quo, possibly some light rain or drizzle will manifest near the beaches mainly Cape and south, more likely from near Ft Pierce and south (however). Brisk wind continues otherwise with cool temperatures. 

Again, not necessarily 'all so cold' with lows Tuesday morning upper 50Fs to near 60F but much colder inland and especially NW and N Florida, or along I-75 /Rte 27 east of Tampa Bay and west of Orlando northward.

WEDNESDAY: Secondary mid level impulse with yet another frontal boundary approaches North Florida. 

As is the case in 'too close to call  for marginal wintry situations', the temperatures not only at the surface but in the lower 5000 feet just above the surface combined are all critical determinant factors in the form in which precipitation will fall as this energies and accompanying moisture advect over the region - additionally whatever change in 'type' it might undergo as it falls is problematic for the forecast.

For now, looks like there could be a period of 'snow' somewhere east of Tallahassee toward Jacksonville and parts a bit south of there as well. If so, as things stand now, that would change over to sleet with time but it simply is too hard to say for certain on any regard. Guidance is in agreement though on quite cool to cold air with 'precipitation'...there is still question on the tempo-areal situation at had to make a definitive call.

Such conditions or rather 'threat of them'  appears to  commence early Wednesday morning  through the mid afternoon. The area to watch for said, 'wintry mess' (mix) is primarily North East Florida.

Further south, there is a chance of rainfall again but mainly very close to the immediate beach side areas from the Cape down toward Dade County. Wind continues from the NE in general gusting up to perhaps 28 mph or so at times with temperatures holding within 3 degrees either side of 60F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: Next cold front plunges southward down the state as deep and powerful low pressure area which will have formed near the northern Bahamas rapidly lifts up toward the North. Coastal Carolinas , perhaps even Coastal Georgia might be able to get a good snow event from this one contingent upon just exactly how close to the eastern U.S. Coast the entire' system' traverses. Close call , so the forecasters will be working their every pennies worth on this one no doubt for forecast accuracy.

THURSDAY MORNING - FRIDAY: Freezing to below freezing temperatures likely for parts of at least northern Lake County toward interior Western Volusia County and northward, with even mid-lower 20FS possible along I-10/panhandle region.

Gusting winds up to 25mph or so in some locations with lows near 36-40F east coast to lower to mid 30Fs interior Central, with highs it appears for Central in the upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs (colder north, a bit warmer south as usual). Would not be surprised though if Central Florida , especially North Central never cracks 50F degrees Thursday afternoon.

Coldest morning of the entire 'event' will either be Friday or Saturday morning, and will be experienced it appears somewhere along the Western Interior regions of the state. Highs on Friday lower 50Fs Central, mid 50Fs south, and mid-upper 40Fs North Florida. Wind will have decreased somewhat to the 15 mph range, though some inland areas in the morning hours will likely see much less wind than near the coast where mixing of the colder air will occur with the warmer air just above the intracoastal waterways

The GFS model is much milder in the forecast however, so this will continue to be monitored no doubt by official outlets. The NAM and the CMC models are much more aggressive with 'The Plunge' and extensive coverage of the colder air , as well as the 'degree' as to how cold it will get, varying by as much as 5-8 F degrees colder than the GFS. The 'Big Q' then is 'how low will it go?". Regardless, no matter which way one looks at it, the cold and wind will have arrived full frontal assault after midnight Wednesday night all through Friday into Friday evening.

SATURDAY: Wind will notably have decreased yet more as it  in by inch will be veering more toward NNE direction. Warmer air of the Atlantic notable even perhaps at the coast by morning as lows might be a good 10F degrees warmer there than previous mornings. The slow but sure 'warming' trend commences, but it will start out quite slow. 

Afternoon highs back into the lower 60Fs south of I-4, mid 60Fs parts of South Central Florida. Still below 'normal'.

SUNDAY: Again wind remains light and from the ENE-NE. Morning lows at the beaches this day could be even in mid-upper 50Fs (?) but colder the further west and north one traverses toward areas like Ocala and north. GFS shows a low, for instance , at the Cape of around 52F, but it might be warmer than that. Sunday afternoon could be seeing upper 60Fs however, which would be nearly 20F degrees warmer than say, Thursday's high temperature.

MONDAY: January 8th might be into the 70Fs as another front approaches. The jury is out for now as to when the next front will cross through. Either later on the 8th or the 9th is not certain. Impacts behind this boundary are not shown to be nearly as 'wrenched  as our upcoming few days later this week though, taking temperatures down to near to just below seasonal norms .

Seeing how this beyond reliability forecast range the pre-requisite ON The OTHER HAND must be mentioned: What happens beyond the 9th is of great uncertainty. The GFS is not consistent from one run to the next, nor does it agree with other models  which also are oscillating/ are behaving inconsistently.   For Example, one run might portray what appears would be a call for a prolonged warmer period,, but before one can even take their jacket off in anticipation of it, the next model run comes out and says, 'not so fast'. 

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