"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 5, 2018

The Worst is Over - Slow But Sure "Warming" Overnight Saturday

Sunrise - January 6, 2017
TODAY: Chilly start to the morning, even colder than yesterday across North Florida. As of 6AM, for example, the temperature at Crestview is 20F with the Milton Naval Air Station at 21F;   Duke Field reads 22F and  Panama City sits at 23F, while Tallahassee basks in 27F right near Route 27. Orlando subs-out reading near the freezing mark, while the far east central coast is similar to yesterday with breezier conditions (unfortunately).

After the aforementioned cold start to the day not much change from yesterday other than sky conditions for mainly Central and South. Latest satellite imagery shows some cirrostratus (mid-high cloud type) approaching from the west (see below). How much they will thin out is uncertain (if at all). 

As is being shown now per viewing model guidance upper level moisture fields, however, they will encroach over the peninsula during the hours of what would normally be the peak heating hours, and as a result of that combined with the low sun angle this time of year, insolation will be minimized keeping afternoon highs down to similar to maybe a tad warmer than yesterday but not by all that much.

The flip side to these clouds, however, will be realized over-night tonight. That being, not as cold most areas. Latest official forecasts are holding on to the freezing temperatures but I'm not seeing it right now. Mostly seeing mid-upper 30Fs but along the immediate coast (Cape and South) looks more like lower - mid 40Fs as opposed to mid-upper 30Fs as was the case yesterday and this morning.

SATURDAY: Given the above, with slightly warmer temperatures (temps) overnight , we will have a slightly warmer start to the day as high clouds continue but are on the move out. 

Afternoon highs on Saturday should breach mid 50Fs with increasing sunshine (hopefully!) so that lower 60Fs to 'near 60F' will be realized from The Beach -Line (or 'Dead Central') and south, remaining cooler I-4 and north. Wind will also be decreasing for those at the coast where it continues to be effective much more than across inland areas where some areas are nearly calm.

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: True warm up begins, first realized along the immediate east coast after midnight. Onshore component wind and modifying affects as it flows across warmer sea surface temperatures could lift the morning low up toward the mid 50Fs as highs breach the lower to mid 60Fs. Still below normal. Does not look like the high clouds will be around any longer either.

Sunday looks to be a very pleasant but still somewhat cool day. All in all, can pack up the heavy cold weather gear now for quite some time to come! (But keep out the cool weather gear).

MONDAY: Even warmer yet still. Morning lows at beaches closer to the lower 60Fs (can we hear mid 60Fs?), warmer even far Southeast Florida in the upper 60Fs to near 70F. Afternoon highs in the lower 70Fs as wind becomes Southeasterly in the 10 mph during the afternoon. 
January 8th looks to be a very nice day.

The time frame between MONDAY and TUESDAY has been a bone of contention in guidance for several days now. The GFS was showing a front to pass through sometime between early Tuesday morning, the 9th, to mid afternoon and most official forecasts bit on it, but alas, it is now slowing down across two consecutive runs on that frontal passage and coming into an agreement  with the ECMWF (European) model. 

Cloud cover will increase as will some rain chances, mainly far northwest Florida. Highs on Monday in the mid-upper 70Fs contingent upon cloud cover with wind from the south but light.

TUESDAY: The 'new situation' at hand, at least as it stands now and given the trends of the GFS is for a rather sloppy ill defined frontal passage. Was watching for the risk of thunder, mainly South Half of state at some point between sunrise and set, and still watching for it, but low level instability is sorely lacking and the wind shear that 'could have' supported 'thunder' isn't sufficient to overcome the lack of instability. Other than a chance of showers (particularly south and far North Florida)...the trend is for highs again in the 70Fs and lows in the upper 50Fs interior to mid-60Fs east coast. Chances are there will be clouds around too.

BEYOND: The front slides across the state as it slowly drops south between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon now more as if in a west to east fashion and onshore flow immediately resumes control afterward. The end result is temperatures near normal in the afternoon and morning lows a bit above normal.

Said light onshore flow continues until the next chance of a frontal passage around the 14th - 16th time frame. In the winter, fronts go through on average ever 4-6 days, though up to a week is not unheard of either, while during the strongest cold weather events that go through transparently as frequently within 24 hours of each other, thus giving re-enforcing shots of cold air. 

As the jet stream pattern is being forecast to lift northward and become more 'zonal', meaning more of an east to west pattern with ripples in it rather than taking deep plunges from north to south, across the mid regions of the country, all things will come out in the wash as 'average' for quite a while if that is to be the case. The next cool spell seen in 'the crystal ball of uncertainty' is showing nothing more than, by comparison to the last few days, nothing more that a 'cool spell'.

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