I've hemmed and hawed at what I can see on data so far, neglecting almost totally the forecasted precip. portions of the models. Basically all that was required was the TPA sounding and latest water vapor loop which was beneficial for sure. In fact, after watching it my hopes are probably unduly hopeful.
Number 1: temps aloft are a tad cooler today with something funky at 700mb, and 2: there seems to be something embedded in the vapor loop that's being forced SE off the GOM FL Panhandle coast rapidly moving toward TPAs area of responsibility. No AFDs are alluding to either though. But it sure seems to me that the activity over in the eastern GOM right now is indicative of what may enter MLBs fcst arena later (albeit it's meager, but there was nothing there yesterday at this time).
If it is real, it might be what's needed to give anything that develops an eastward nudge against the seabreeze coz it's going to need it today with those winds aloft of 10kts or less (less than yesterday).
So all things included, today looks like stronger storms and even slower motion. Once stuff goes up...and assuming there will be at least 3 storms within 50 miles of each other by 4:30pm..motion will be almost solely dictated upon c-breeze/lake breeze/outflow boundaries and propagation along said forth. In other words, unpredictable at best (can it be any worse?)
Another fly before being done for now, is what will happen in Part 1 of the day? With the lighter winds, more than sufficient moisture, and recycled air...is there the possibility of an actual funnel along the coastal waters before 2pm?
Looking at the sky right now it's hard to even consider it ...I mean..it's absolutely clear right now without a speck of cloud and it's 10:30am.
We'll know sure enough I guess. I hope I don't have to go anywhere today...and maybe there'll be no reason to if nothing fires which I originally thought would be the case...but clearly I'm leaning away from that now despite what the models are depicting. So what it all amounts to is this.."another summer day in Central Florida...roll the dice..."
Number 1: temps aloft are a tad cooler today with something funky at 700mb, and 2: there seems to be something embedded in the vapor loop that's being forced SE off the GOM FL Panhandle coast rapidly moving toward TPAs area of responsibility. No AFDs are alluding to either though. But it sure seems to me that the activity over in the eastern GOM right now is indicative of what may enter MLBs fcst arena later (albeit it's meager, but there was nothing there yesterday at this time).
If it is real, it might be what's needed to give anything that develops an eastward nudge against the seabreeze coz it's going to need it today with those winds aloft of 10kts or less (less than yesterday).
So all things included, today looks like stronger storms and even slower motion. Once stuff goes up...and assuming there will be at least 3 storms within 50 miles of each other by 4:30pm..motion will be almost solely dictated upon c-breeze/lake breeze/outflow boundaries and propagation along said forth. In other words, unpredictable at best (can it be any worse?)
Another fly before being done for now, is what will happen in Part 1 of the day? With the lighter winds, more than sufficient moisture, and recycled air...is there the possibility of an actual funnel along the coastal waters before 2pm?
Looking at the sky right now it's hard to even consider it ...I mean..it's absolutely clear right now without a speck of cloud and it's 10:30am.
We'll know sure enough I guess. I hope I don't have to go anywhere today...and maybe there'll be no reason to if nothing fires which I originally thought would be the case...but clearly I'm leaning away from that now despite what the models are depicting. So what it all amounts to is this.."another summer day in Central Florida...roll the dice..."
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With a little luck, managed to create a "diary" of yesterday's storm evolution...from initial Cu development during c-breeze onset at 12 noon, to TCu at 1:52pm as the c-breeze began it's westward march, and eventually CB at 5:15pm with a very typical Florida Gust Front appended as the storm crawled back SE across the intercoastal waterways toward the coast. Saved some satellite/radar imagery to accompany the time/date stamped photos to complete the package.
There was actually a severe issued at the time of the photo adventure, but not for this storm. The warning was for a storm behind this one which I couldn't even see. After taking the pix, I came home and watched the fun transpire on Wx-Tap watching multiple boundary(s) collisions [multiple stressed :-)] and cell propagation along boundaries and the c-breeze. Was tempted to hit the road again to head inland but figured that relatively short storm life, and by that time cloud cover/structural integrity inland, precluded the feasibility of vying for that option. as tempting as it was.
If interested you can see the pics. I only uploaded two other pix (of the many I took) from yesterday accessible to the right of the one that will pop up under "Weather and Storm Photographs (set):
http://tinyurl.com/n2gzoq
There was actually a severe issued at the time of the photo adventure, but not for this storm. The warning was for a storm behind this one which I couldn't even see. After taking the pix, I came home and watched the fun transpire on Wx-Tap watching multiple boundary(s) collisions [multiple stressed :-)] and cell propagation along boundaries and the c-breeze. Was tempted to hit the road again to head inland but figured that relatively short storm life, and by that time cloud cover/structural integrity inland, precluded the feasibility of vying for that option. as tempting as it was.
If interested you can see the pics. I only uploaded two other pix (of the many I took) from yesterday accessible to the right of the one that will pop up under "Weather and Storm Photographs (set):
http://tinyurl.com/n2gzoq
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