"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, August 5, 2009


Can't stand it any longer. Decided to go ahead and post some early-in-the-day forecast musings. Based on current RUC trends, last night's NAM and GFS, water vapor loops, and surface observations... today doesn't look much different than yesterday. Inevitably, an update to this discussion will be required after sounding data becomes available. Namely to see what Tampa's (TPA) mid-upper level temps. & winds reveal. Otherwise, there are no triggers detectable, which means we'll have to depend on the usual. Like yesterday, storm motion will be determined by how far inland the seabreeze (SB) will march before convective onset in conjunction with outflow boundary (OFB) interactions and propogation along said forth. What this all means is that motion will be unpredictable at best with highest concentration west of the east coast seabreeze in Volusia, Orange, Osceola, and Lake Counties. Any storm that actually makes it to the coast after 5pm will do it based on outflow from earlier activity as steering ALONE is too weak to fight the seabreeze. In these cases, without some outside help, whatever reaches the coast would be light rain and some anvil lightning (generally...debris) .
In this musing, I'm learning that one can't compare what the previous day did here (in THIS summer setup) even if the soundings are similar. Namely because the aforementioned collisions and undetectable microscale parameters that mother nature has up her sleeve leaves the affects of collisions or even initial shower/storm development a unique "experience" each and every time they happen (even within one day). This can vary from having possible funnels/spouts along the coast and intercoastal before or during full bore seabreeze initiation (which is possible today suppositioning there will be very weak winds aloft which is going to be a given) to the result of outflow collisions (assuming there will be more than 2 storms within 50 miles off each other). Combine them all and what you end up with is a mish-mash slop fest if there is too much a good thing. Thus, I try to get to not the first storm of the day (unless it's very nearby)..but rather wait until after a few have gone up (but not's that for being vague?). BUT NOTE: Not all summer setups are the same just like no two days within a given setup are the same.

As of this writing (now 7:40am) a deck of stratocumulus has suddenly materialize which may be indicative of residual midlevel moisture (which is shown by all the models to be in place). They also show this moisture to dissipate by 2:00pm today at all levels which actually could be a good thing for later photo opportunities. This residual stuff often leaves around too many clouds during shower/storm formative stages for good structure shots.

In Summary: We will have CAPE today with decent LIs, seabreeze convergence from both coasts, ample moisture..thus, it's summer in Florida. Best bet is going to be right down and west of I-95 after 3pm, not to discount the possiblity that something flooky (such as a funnel) could occur east of US1 before that time. Storm strength before 3pm should be weak with little to be seen structure wise, even if one does produce a funnel.
Update to follow upon latest data availability.

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